000 AXNT20 KNHC 191707 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jul 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1655 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are seen near the trough axis. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 22N, moving westward at 20-25 kt. Scattered showers are observed from 13N to 23N and between 60W and 73W. The storm activity is also affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Leeward Islands. These storms may produce heavy downpours, lightning and gusty winds. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W, south of 20N, moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted south of 20N and west of 75W, also affecting portions of Central America and northern Colombia. Gusty winds and higher seas are possible near the stronger storms. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues to 11N30W and to 05N54W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 10N and between 25W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is approaching the NW Gulf coast resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northern Gulf waters. A weak pressure gradient across the basin supports light to gentle anticyclonic winds and slight seas. However, gusty winds and higher seas are possible near the stronger storms. For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will extend westward across Florida and the northern Gulf through early next week supporting gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas. Pulsing moderate to fresh winds are expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula during the evening and night hours due to local effects. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea. Please, see the Tropical Waves section above for more details. A broad subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic extends into the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over much of the basin, especially between 12N to 20N. Stronger winds are likely occurring near the isolated thunderstorms in the NW and SW Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds over the central Caribbean, with mainly moderate seas. Winds and seas will diminish slightly through early Sat as a tropical wave moves through the basin. The trade winds and associated seas will increase again Sat through Mon, diminishing some Tue and increasing again Tue night in the wake of the tropical wave. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Divergence aloft is producing a few showers over the SW North Atlantic, especially west of 75W. The rest of the basin is under the influence of an expansive subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds south of 28N and between 55W and 70W. This is the result of moderate pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally strong northerly winds are occurring off Western Sahara and Morocco, primarily north of 16N and east of 20W. Seas are 4-6 ft in the area described. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are found south of the monsoon trough and east of 35W, along with seas of 4-7 ft. In the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge will extend from a 1027 mb high located N of the area near 32N53W west- southwestward to across central Florida. The related gradient will support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 26N, with winds pulsing to strong during the late afternoons and evenings off the northern coast of Hispaniola into next week. $$ Delgado