000 AXNT20 KNHC 200532 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jul 20 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm on either side of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W/72W from 21N southward, moving westward 20 knots to 25 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 14N to 25N within 450 nm to the east of the tropical wave; and in the Windward Passage. A tropical wave is along 89W, from 20N southward, moving westward 20 knots. The tropical wave extends from the Yucatan Peninsula southward, through Central America. Precipitation: scattered strong is in Honduras and Guatemala, and it is in the coastal waters on the Pacific Ocean side from Nicaragua to Guatemala. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is in the coastal plains and in the coastal waters of Nicaragua. The precipitation is comparatively weaker in intensity, and less in coverage, between 80W and the 70W/72W tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of northern Senegal near 16N17W, to 10N30W 09N40W 07N48W, and 07N55W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, is to the south of the monsoon trough. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through Florida along 28N, toward the Deep South of Texas/NE Mexico. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the south central Gulf. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong spans much of the Gulf. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong convective precipitation surrounds Florida, under the upper level anticyclonic wind flow. Slight seas, and moderate or slower winds, are in the Gulf. Atlantic high pressure will extend westward across central Florida and to the central Gulf through Sun, then slowly lift northward to near 30N Mon through midweek. It will support gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas. Pulsing moderate to fresh winds are expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula during the evening and night hours due to local effects. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the area. Moderate seas are between Puerto Rico and 81W. Slight seas are in the remainder of the area. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds cover the entire Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 75W in Colombia, beyond Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon trough. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 20/0000 UTC, are: 0.09 in Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds over the central Caribbean, with mainly moderate seas. Winds and seas will diminish slightly through early Sat as a tropical wave moves through the basin. The trade winds and associated seas will increase again Sat through Mon, diminishing some Tue and increasing again Tue night in the wake of an easterly surge. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper level pattern consists of ridge/trough couplets from Florida to 40W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward between 30W and 50W, and from 13N to 20N between 51W and 60W. A surface trough has broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers within 90 nm on either side of 30N33W 24N40W 20N48W. Large-scale surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. A 1029 mb high pressure center is near 33N54W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are from 26N northward from 19W eastward. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are elsewhere from 20W eastward from the monsoon trough northward. Fresh anticyclonic wind flow is from 28N southward between 45W and 71W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 14N northward between 35W and 45W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate seas are in the Atlantic Ocean. A ridge will extend westward from the N central Atlantic to across central Florida. The ridge will slowly lift N to near 30N Mon through midweek. The related gradient will support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 26N, with winds pulsing to strong during the late afternoons and evenings off the northern coast of Hispaniola into next week. The northern portion of a tropical wave will move through the waters south of 24N through Mon accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some of which may produce strong gusty winds and rough seas. $$ mt/gr