000 AXNT20 KNHC 201816 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Jul 20 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 19N southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered showers are seen from 07N to 09N between 26W and 34W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 76W from eastern Cuba southward into northwestern Colombia. It is moving westward at near 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over Jamaica and eastern Cuba. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near Nouakchott, then extends southwestward across 11N30W to 09N49W. An ITCZ continues westward from 09N49W to 10N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring south of the trough from 08N to 11N between Guinea/Guinea-Bissau coast and 19W. Widely scattered showers are seen farther west from 05N to 08N between 34W and 45W. No significant convection is seen near the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and Panama. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough reaches northeastward from northwestern Gulf to a 1015 mb low near Houston, Texas then turns eastward to another 1015 mb low near New Orleans, Louisiana. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found across the northern Gulf, north of 26N. Convergent southeasterly winds are producing isolated thunderstorms over the west-central Gulf. A broad surface ridge runs southwestward from central Florida to a 1017 mb high near Tampico, Mexico. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are present across the southern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche and Straits of Florida. Mostly gentle S to SW winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in place across the Gulf over the next several days. It will support gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds and slight seas. Pulsing moderate to fresh winds are expected near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula during the evening and nighttime hours due to local effects. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A large 1029 mb high over the north-central Atlantic near 33N55W continues to support a trade-wind pattern across much of the Caribbean Sea. Convergent trades are coupling with divergent winds aloft to trigger Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over and near Hispaniola, and across the Gulf of Honduras. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are evident at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted at the north-central and eastern basin, including the Mona Passage. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft in ENE swell are found near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, after the passage of the aforementioned tropical wave, trade winds and associated seas will diminish slightly on Tue. Winds and seas are expected to increase again across the eastern and central basin Tue night into Wed as the Atlantic high pressure strengthens some. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level trough reaches southwestward from a low near 30N67W across the southeast Bahamas to central Cuba. Divergent winds related these features are enhancing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 20N to 24N between 69W and 73W, including the southeast and central Bahamas. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. A broad surface ridge reaches southwestward from a 1029 mb high near 33N55W to beyond central Florida. It is supporting gentle to moderate NE to SSE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are present north of 20N between 30W and the Florida-Georgia coast, except fresh to locally strong E to SE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas near the southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NNE to ENE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist. Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds and monsoonal westerly winds with 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 35W, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the Atlantic. The associated ridge will slowly lift northward to near 30N Mon through midweek. The related pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 26N, with winds pulsing to strong during the late afternoons and evenings off the northern coast of Hispaniola into next week. The northern portion of a tropical wave will move through the waters south of 24N through Mon accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some of which may produce strong gusty winds and rough seas. $$ Chan