000 AXNT20 KNHC 210604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jul 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/33W, from 19N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Any nearby precipitation also is close to the monsoon trough. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 18N to 26N in the Bahamas between 70W and 82W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is between the tropical wave and Central America. A tropical wave is along 96W, from 19N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. The tropical wave is passing through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico southward, into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 15N to 22N between 90W and 100W, in parts of Mexico and in the SW part of the Gulf of Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of northern Senegal near 16N17W, to 12N30W 10N40W 10N43W 09N47W 09N50W. The ITCZ continues from 09N50W to 09N61W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are from the monsoon trough and ITCZ southward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate convective precipitation, are in the Gulf. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is everywhere in the Gulf, with an east-to-west 25N/26N ridge. Slight seas, and moderate or slower winds, are in the Gulf. A ridge will remain in place across the Gulf waters over the next several days. It will support gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds and slight seas. Pulsing moderate to fresh winds are expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula during the evening and night hours due to local effects. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over the Straits of Florida Sun night as a tropical wave passes to the S. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate to strong is from 14N to 17N between 87W and 90W, in Honduras, Belize, and Guatemala. This precipitation is on the southeastern side of a middle level inverted trough. Moderate seas are between 65W and 80W from Hispaniola southward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the area. Strong NE winds are between 71W and 76W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N from 74W in Colombia, beyond Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 13N southward from 80W westward. A tropical wave axis is near 77W/78W S of 21N. The wave will move through the western Caribbean tonight through Mon afternoon. High pressure from the central Atlantic will build in its wake, with increasing fresh to strong winds and building seas, possibly peaking to 10 ft over the south-central Caribbean on Mon. The trade winds and associated seas will diminish slightly on Tue, then increase across the eastern and central Caribbean for the remainder of the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper level pattern consists of ridge/trough couplets from Florida to 40W. Large-scale surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, cover much of the Atlantic Ocean. The Bermuda-Azores high will continue to dominate the Atlantic forecast waters over the next several days. The related pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 26N, with winds pulsing to strong during the late afternoons and evenings off the northern coast of Hispaniola into next week. The northern portion of a tropical wave combined with an upper-level low spinning over the central Bahamas and central Cuba is producing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the SE Bahamas, Haiti and eastern Cuba. This convective activity will continue to shift westward across the Bahamas, Cuba, and regional waters tonight and Sun, reaching the Straits of Florida late Sun into Mon. Some of the thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and rough seas. $$ mt/gr