303 
AXNT20 KNHC 212206
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jul 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 19N southward,
and moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is
noted. 

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W from the Cayman
Islands southward across central Panama. It is moving westward 
at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are 
occurring near the Cayman Islands, and along the coast of 
Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Mauritania coast
near Nouakchott, then extends southwestward to 10N40W. An ITCZ 
continues westward from 10N40W to north of Guyana near 09N55W. 
No significant convection is noted across the basin. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough reaches from weak 1015 mb low pressure over the
western Florida Panhandle, across the northern Gulf to off South
Padre Island. 1018 mb high pressure is centered over the
northeast Gulf near 28N87W. This pattern is supporting gentle
breezes and slight seas across the Gulf. Divergent flow aloft
associated with an upper low centered over Tamaulipas in 
northeast Mexico is supporting clusters of showers and
thunderstorms over the western Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place across the Gulf waters
over the next several days. It will support gentle to moderate E
to SE winds and slight seas. Pulsing moderate to fresh winds are
expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula during the
evening and night hours due to local effects, with the exception 
of Tue night when fresh to strong wind are expected. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over the Straits 
of Florida and the SE Gulf tonight and Mon as the northern portion
of a tropical wave moves across the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the 
Caribbean Sea. 

Recent buoy data along with scatterometer satellite and altimeter
passes confirmed fresh to strong trade wind and 8 to 10 ft
combined seas across much of the central Caribbean. These winds
and seas are the result of the Atlantic ridge to the north
building over the eastern Caribbean following the passage of a
tropical wave currently moving through the western Caribbean.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are evident, with 5 to 7 ft
seas over the eastern Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft over the remainder
of the basin.

For the forecast, the tropical wave along 81W will move across 
the remainder of the western Caribbean through Mon. High pressure 
from the central Atlantic will build in its wake, with increasing 
fresh to strong winds and building seas, possibly peaking to 11 or
12 ft over the south-central Caribbean early on Mon. Trade winds 
reach to near gale force offshore NW Colombia tonight. The trade 
winds and associated seas will diminish slightly on Tue, then 
increase across the eastern and central Caribbean for the 
remainder of the forecast period. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough extends southwestward from a low southwest
of Bermuda near 29N68W. Associated divergent flow aloft is
couplingwith a surface trough over the central Bahamas to 
produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the 
northern and central Bahamas, and east of the Bahamas to 72W. A 
1025 mb high pressure area near 32N57W continues to dominate the 
western subtropical and tropical Atlantic. The pattern is 
supporting a large area of moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 
7 ft seas across the basin south of 25N and west of 35W. An 
earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated a small area of 
fresh to strong E winds off Hispaniola and near the northern 
entrance of the Windward Passage. Gentle E to SE breezes and 4 to 
6 ft seas are noted elsewhere over open waters. East of 35W, fresh
to strong NE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are noted off northwest 
Africa and across the Canary Islands. Gentle to moderate breezes 
and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Widespread Saharan dust 
continues to suppress any significant convection across most of 
the basin at this time.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will continue to 
dominate the Atlantic forecast waters over the next several days. 
The related pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh 
easterly winds south of 25N, with winds pulsing to strong during 
the late afternoons and evenings off the northern coast of 
Hispaniola well into next week. The showers and thunderstorms over
the Bahamas will continue to shift westward tonight into Mon as 
the upper- level and tropical wave continue. The activity will 
impact the regional waters south of about 27N and west of 74W, 
including the Straits of Florida, with potential for strong gusty 
winds and rough seas.

$$
Christensen