000 AXNT20 KNHC 220543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Jul 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W, from 19N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Any nearby precipitation also is close to the monsoon trough. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W from 21N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. The GFS model for 700 mb shows that an inverted trough extends from the southern tip of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in clusters are from 17N to 23N between 82W and the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are between 95W and 102W, in the Gulf and in parts of Mexico that are to the south of the border with Texas. A second and smaller upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 20N94W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Mauritania near 20N16W, to 17N20W 12N30W 11N35W. The ITCZ continues from 11N35W, to 10N43W 11N50W, to 10N60W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are within 540 nm to the south of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are between 95W and 102W, in the Gulf and in parts of Mexico that are to the south of the border with Texas. A second and smaller upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 20N94W. Weak upper level cyclonic wind flow covers much of the northern half of the Gulf. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the parts of the NW Gulf, and in parts of the north central Gulf. The GFS model for 700 mb shows that an inverted trough extends from the southern tip of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from Cuba to 26N between 76W in the Bahamas and 84W in the SE Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes through 30N74W in the Atlantic Ocean, through Florida along 28N/29N, to 28N93W in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Slight seas, and moderate or slower winds, are in the Gulf. A ridge will remain in place across the Gulf waters over the next several days. It will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas. Pulsing moderate to fresh winds are expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula during the evening and night hours due to local effects, with the exception of Tue night when fresh to strong wind are expected. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf tonight and Mon as the northern portion of a tropical wave moves across the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong NE winds, and rough seas, are in the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh NE winds, and moderate seas, are in the eastern one-third of the area. Moderate to fresh cyclonic wind flow is in the NW corner of the area. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the SW corner. Slight to moderate seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N from 74W in Colombia, beyond Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 13N southward from 80W westward. A tropical wave axis is near 81W S of 21N. The wave will move across the remainder of the western Caribbean through Mon. High pressure from the central Atlantic will build in its wake, with increasing fresh to strong winds and building seas, possibly peaking to 11 or 12 ft over the south-central Caribbean early on Mon. Trade winds are expected to reach to near gale force offshore NW Colombia tonight. The trade winds and associated seas will diminish slightly on Tue, then increase across the eastern and central Caribbean for the remainder of the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper level pattern consists of ridge/trough couplets from Africa to the SE U.S.A. Large-scale surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean. A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 35N31W. One 1025 mb high pressure center is near 33N44W. A second 1025 mb high pressure center is near 32N54W. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 300 nm on either side of 30N13W 26N19W 22N30W 21N35W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are in much of the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Some exceptions are for moderate or slower winds are to the north of 31N26W 27N34W 26N45W 28N60W 25N70W 25N80W. Moderate seas cover much of the Atlantic Ocean. Some exceptions are for slight to moderate seas from 25N northward between 30W and 50W. The Bermuda-Azores high will continue to dominate the Atlantic forecast waters over the next several days. The related pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N, with winds pulsing to strong during the late afternoons and evenings off the northern coast of Hispaniola well into the week. The northern portion of a tropical wave combined with an upper- level low located over western Cuba is resulting in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Bahamas, western Cuba and the waters between the Bahamas and South Florida. This convective activity will continue to shift westward tonight into Mon as the upper-level low and tropical wave continue to move westward. The activity will impact the regional waters S of about 27N and W of 74W, including the Straits of Florida, with potential for strong gusty winds and rough seas. $$ mt/gr