098 AXNT20 KNHC 221016 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jul 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 39W from 19N southward, moving westward at 1O to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern end of the wave axis. A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Its axis is along 81W and extends from the Cayman Islands southward across western Panama. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. The wave, combined with an upper-level low, continues to enhance convection over parts of the NW Caribbean, western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula and the Yucatan Channel. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W, then extends southwestward to 10N45W. The ITCZ continues westward from 11N45W to near 10N60W. Scattered moderate convection is mostly S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 05N to 10N between 16W and 60W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Showers and thunderstorms continue to flare-up over the southern part of the Gulf, particularly over the Bay of Campeche where a diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. A ridge, extending across Florida into the Gulf waters, dominates the basin. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters for the next several days. It will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas. Pulsing moderate to fresh winds are expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula during the evening and night hours through Thu night due to local effects. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf today as the northern portion of a tropical wave continues to move westward across the area. The wave axis is forecast to reach the Yucatan peninsula by this evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical is moving across the western Caribbean. Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. Recent buoy observations, scatterometer data and altimeter passes confirmed the presence of fresh to strong trade wind and 8 to 11 ft seas across much of the central Caribbean. These winds and seas are the result of the Atlantic ridge to the north building over the east and central Caribbean following the passage of the tropical wave currently moving through the western Caribbean. Fresh NE to E winds are noted across the Mona Passage funneling south of Dominican Republic. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are evident, with 5 to 7 ft seas E of 80W, and 3 to 5 ft over the remainder of the basin. Patches of low level clouds, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. These patches of low level clouds are more concentrated over the northern Leeward Islands, the US/UK Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico, including regional waters. The San Juan Doppler radar confirmed the presence of this shower activity. For the forecast, the aforementioned tropical wave will move across the remainder of the western Caribbean today reaching the Yucatan Peninsula by this evening. High pressure from the central Atlantic will build in its wake, with increasing fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas, possibly peaking to 11 or 12 ft over the south-central Caribbean this morning. The trade winds and associated seas will diminish slightly on Tue, then increase across the eastern and central Caribbean for the remainder of the forecast period as the Atlantic high pressure strengthens some. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level low is spinning near 28N68W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are related to this system. Convection increases over the NW Bahamas and South Florida in association with the northern portion of a tropical wave and another upper-level low located over western Cuba and the Straits of Florida. The Bermuda-Azores high continues to dominate the Atlantic forecast waters, with the main center of 1026 mb located SW of the Azores near 34N38W. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressure over NW Africa is resulting in fresh to strong winds near the coast of Morocco and between the Canary Islands where seas are in the 6 to 9 ft range. Meteo-France is forecasting near gale force winds in the marine zones of Agadir and Canarias. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail, but mainly along the souther periphery of the Atlantic ridge. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores high will continue to dominate the Atlantic forecast waters over the next several days. The related pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N, with winds pulsing to strong during the late afternoons and evenings off the northern coast of Hispaniola well into the week. The northern portion of a tropical wave with axis along 81W combined with an upper-level low located over western Cuba is resulting in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over portions of the NW Bahamas, western Cuba, the Yucatan Channel, the Straits of Florida and South Florida. This convective activity will continue to shift westward today in tandem with the upper-level low and tropical wave, with potential for strong gusty winds and rough seas. $$ GR