000 AXNT20 KNHC 221758 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Jul 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from 19N southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 33W and 41W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from near the Island of Youth southward across the Costa Rica-Panama border into the East Pacific. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near Costa Rica, Panama, Nicaragua and at the Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania just north of Nouakchott, then curves southwestward through 12N30W to 10N45W. An ITCZ continues westward from 10N45W to 10N53W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is south of the trough from 08N to 11N between 18W and 21W. Scattered moderate convection is found farther west from 06N to 09N between 26W and 32W. Widely scattered moderate convection is present south of the ITCZ from 05N to 8N between 42W and 52W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the southwestern and west-central Gulf. An upper-level trough runs southward from the Florida Panhandle to beyond the Florida Straits. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen at the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Convergent southeasterly winds are triggering similar convection across the northwestern and north-central Gulf. A surface ridge runs southwestward from a 1017 mb high at the northeastern Gulf to just north of Tampico, Mexico. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft are present at the north- central and northeastern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted at the southwestern and west-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate ESE to SSE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned high and related ridge will continue to support gentle to moderate E to SE winds across most of the Gulf through Fri along with slight to moderate seas. In the southwestern Gulf, a surface through coming off the Yucatan Peninsula during the evening and night hours will support moderate to fresh winds in the Bay of Campeche through Thu. Scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will continue today over the southwestern Gulf. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist through Tue as a tropical wave moves from the western Caribbean across the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trade winds are producing widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Otherwise, the Azores-Bermuda High near 32N60W continues to support a trade-wind regime across much of the basin. Fresh to strong ENE winds with 7 to 10 ft seas are evident at the southwestern and south-central basin, except waters near Costa Rica and Panama, where winds are light to gentle and seas are 4 to 6 ft in moderate NE swell. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin, except moderate to fresh E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas near the Windward Passage. For the forecast, the aforementioned tropical wave will move across the remainder of the western basin today and reach the Yucatan Peninsula later tonight while generating fresh to strong winds in the western Gulf of Honduras tonight. The Azores-Bermuda High and associated ridge will continue to support fresh to strong easterly winds over the central and portions of the southwestern basin through Fri along with moderate to rough seas. Fresh to strong NE winds are also expected in the Windward Passage under the influence of the ridge. Moderate to fresh trades are forecast for the eastern basin into the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Enhanced by divergent upper-level winds, a surface trough is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northeast Bahamas and southern Florida, including the Florida Straits. Another surface trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms from 23N to 25N between 44W and 51W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. The Bermuda-Azores High combo is supporting gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft north of 20N between 40W and the Florida-Georgia coast, except winds are moderate to fresh near the southeast Bahamas and Great Bahama Bank. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to NE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas exist north of 18N between the northwest Africa coast and 40W. For the waters near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate SW to NNW winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate to large mixed swells dominate from 07N to 18N between the central Africa coast and 35W. For the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft exist. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh southerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores high will continue to dominate the western and tropical Atlantic waters through Fri. The related pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N, with winds pulsing to strong during the late afternoons and evenings off the northern coast of Hispaniola through Thu. Scattered showers and thunderstorms near the northwest Bahamas and adjacent waters, including the South Florida seaboard will continue through this evening. $$ Chan