000 AXNT20 KNHC 222355 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Jul 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 41W from 19N southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted near this wave access. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W over the northwestern Caribbean into eastern Honduras. No significant convection is noted near this wave access. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W through 11N35W to 11N40W. The ITCZ continues from 11N40W to 11N52W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 09N to 11N between 21W and 23W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active over the east central Gulf, on the periphery of an upper low over the northern Bahamas. A few showers and thunderstorms are also active along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, ahead of daily trough that forms over the region. Elsewhere a weak pressure pattern is supporting light to gentle breezes across the basin, with 2 to 3 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure will persist across the Gulf of Mexico through the forecast period sustaining mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off NW Yucatan over the next several days. A surface trough in the western Gulf waters will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the next few days. The storm activity will be further enhanced by a tropical wave that will reach the Yucatan Peninsula this evening and then move westward into the Bay of Campeche Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds persist across the Windward Passage, Gulf of Honduras, and coasts of northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela. These winds are influenced by the Atlantic high pressure building in the wake of a tropical wave now moving through the northwest Caribbean. Moderaate to fresh E winds are noted elsewhere, except for gentle to moderate winds over the far northwest Caribbean. Seas are 7 to 10 ft over the southwest Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. No significant convection is active. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will sustain moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds through the forecast period, pulsing to strong speeds nightly in the central and southwest Caribbean. Seas will build to 10-12 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds are also expected in the Windward Passage under the influence of the ridge. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and thunderstorm activity is ongoing over the northern Bahamas, related to an upper low over the area, and near an associated surface trough. Elsewhere the Atlantic pattern is dominated by 1025 mb high pressure centered near 32N55W, with a ridge extending toward the Azores. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas over most area, except for fresh to strong NE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas off northwest Africa. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will dominate the forecast waters into the weekend. The pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N, with winds pulsing to strong speeds during the afternoons and evenings off the northern coast of Hispaniola through Thu. A weak trough in the NW Bahamas and divergence aloft results in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. This storm activity will continue over the next day or two. $$ Christensen