000 AXNT20 KNHC 231015 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Jul 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 41.5W from 19N southward, and moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the southern portion of the wave environment. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 87W over the northwestern Caribbean into central Honduras. No significant convection is noted near this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 21N17W to 09N47W. The ITCZ continues from 09N47W to 11N61W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 08N to 11N between 23W and 37W. Scattered showers prevail along the ITCZ and W of 54W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active over the east central Gulf, on the periphery of an upper low over the northern Bahamas and a surface trough across Florida. Scattered moderate convection is also active along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, in association with a surface trough. Gentle to moderate winds and seas 3 to 4 ft are present in the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern is supporting light to gentle breezes across the basin, with 2 to 3 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure will persist across the Gulf of Mexico through the forecast period sustaining gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off NW Yucatan over the next several days. A pair of surface troughs in the western Gulf waters will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the next few days. The storm activity will be further enhanced by a tropical wave that will reach the Yucatan Peninsula today, then move westward into the Bay of Campeche. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. The eastern end of the Pacific Monsoon Trough is producing scattered moderate convection off the coast of Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds persist across the Windward Passage, Gulf of Honduras, and coasts of northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela. These winds are influenced by the Atlantic high pressure building in the wake of a tropical wave now moving through the northwest Caribbean. Moderate to fresh E winds are noted elsewhere, except for gentle to moderate winds over the far northwest Caribbean. Seas are 8 to 10 ft over the southwest Caribbean, and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the tropical wave in the NW Caribbean will exit the area today. Winds will weaken over the Gulf of Honduras this morning. The subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds through the forecast period, pulsing to strong speeds nightly in the central and SW Caribbean. Seas of 8-10 ft will prevail today across the south central Caribbean, while seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere. Fresh to strong NE winds are also expected in the Windward Passage under the influence of the ridge. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorm are noted over the western Atlantic, W of 77W. This activity is in association to a surface trough over the Florida Peninsula and divergence aloft. Elsewhere the Atlantic pattern is dominated by 1026 mb high pressure centered near 33N46W, with a ridge extending toward the Azores. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas over most area, except for fresh to strong NE winds N of the Windward Passage, and fresh to strong NE winds with seas to 8 ft off northwest Africa. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will dominate the forecast waters into the weekend. The pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N, with winds pulsing to strong speeds during the afternoons and evenings off the northern coast of Hispaniola through Thu. A surface trough over central Florida and the western Atlantic area will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the next day or two. $$ ERA