000 AXNT20 KNHC 231754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Jul 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W, from 19N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: Any nearby precipitation is also close to the monsoon trough/the ITCZ. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along near 88W from 21N southward, moving westward 10 knots. The wave is passing through the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America, and into the Pacific Ocean. No significant deep convective precipitation is associated with this tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 14N17W, to 12N20W 10N30W 10N40W 09N47W. The ITCZ continues from 09N47W to 05N52W 11N56W 12N60W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 08N to 11N between 25W and 29W. Scattered to numerous moderate and widely scattered strong is: from 11N to 14N between the coast of Africa and 18W; from 08N to 11N between 34W and 40W; and from 10N to 13N between 56W and 61W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 03N to 11N between 38W and 51W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 22N northward between the coastal waters of Texas and Mexico and 104W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate to strong in clusters covers much of the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the NE corner of the area, from 29N northward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow extends from the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, to Cuba and to parts of the Straits of Florida. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is between the two areas of cyclonic wind flow. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 24N to 27N between 83W and 86W. Isolated moderate covers the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes through Florida along 27N/28N toward the NW corner of the Gulf. Slight seas, and moderate or slower winds, are in the Gulf of Mexico. An exception is for fresh SE winds that are from 22N southward from the Yucatan Peninsula westward. High pressure will persist across the Gulf of Mexico through the forecast period sustaining gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off NW Yucatan over the next several days. Scattered showers and tstms are forecast to prevail over the western Gulf waters through Wed morning due to a favorable upper-level pattern and abundant moisture inflow from the Caribbean. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to near-rough seas are from 17N southward between 70W and 80W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds are between 70W and 80W from 18N southward. Moderate or slower winds are in the Windward Passage. Fresh NE winds are from 70W eastward. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N from 71W in Venezuela beyond Costa Rica, into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate to strong is from 12N southward from 76W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 23/1200 UTC, are: 0.35 in Curacao; 0.33 in Freeport in the Bahamas: 0.24 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; 0.09 in Trinidad; 0.08 in Nassau in the Bahamas; and 0.04 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. The subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds through the forecast period, pulsing to strong speeds nightly in the central and SW Caribbean. Seas of 8-10 ft will prevail today across the south- central Caribbean, while seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere. Fresh to strong NE winds are also expected in the Windward Passage under the influence of the ridge. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean. A 1029 mb high pressure center is near 33N44W. A 1027 mb high pressure center is near 32N63W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate rainshowers, are from 20N northward from 40W westward. Moderate to near-rough seas are from 15N to 24N between 20W and 40W. Moderate to rough seas are from 05N southward between 36W and 42W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 19N to 22N between 35W and 40W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are to the south of the line 31N27W 29N37W 27N49W 29N61W 26N73W. Moderate SE to S winds are from 26N northward from 68W westward. Gentle winds are elsewhere. Fresh southerly winds are from the monsoon trough southward from 35W eastward. Moderate to fresh SE winds are elsewhere from the monsoon trough/the ITCZ southward between 35W and 60W. The subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will dominate the forecast waters into the weekend. The pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N, with winds pulsing to strong speeds during the afternoons and evenings off the northern coast of Hispaniola through Thu. $$ mt/nr