000 AXNT20 KNHC 241015 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Jul 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed near 23W, from 17N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 51W, from 16N southward, moving at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 07.5N to 11N between 47W and 55W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 21N17W to 08N49W. The ITCZ extends from 08N52W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate to scattered strong convection is depicted from 07N to 10N between 28W and 32.5W and from 07N to 10.5N between 38W and 43.5W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from near 29N83W to 27N87W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of this trough. To the W, another trough is analyzed from 29N93W to 24N96W. Scattered moderate convection prevails W of the trough. The diurnal thermal trough is analyzed across the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, surface ridging from the west Atlantic extends across the area. Mainly light to gentle variable winds dominate most of the basin, except for moderate to fresh winds across the Bay of Campeche and the Florida Straits. Seas are 2 ft or less in the NE Gulf of Mexico, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will persist across the basin through the forecast period sustaining gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off NW Yucatan over the next several days. Scattered showers and tstms are forecast to prevail over the western Gulf waters through Wed morning due to a favorable upper-level pattern and abundant moisture inflow from the Caribbean. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is observed near the Windward Passage and south of Cuba in association with two weak surface troughs. The eastern end of the east Pacific monsoon trough extends along 10N from Costa Rica to Colombia. Scattered moderate convection associated with this feature extends S of 11N. Fresh to strong trades dominate the central Caribbean and Windward Passage, with moderate to fresh winds in the east and SW, as well as the Gulf of Honduras. In the NW Caribbean gentle to moderate E winds prevail. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the central and SW Caribbean, and in the Windward Passage. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the east and 3 to 5 ft in the NW. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over the eastern Caribbean. In the central Caribbean, easterly winds will remain fresh to strong, expanding to portions of the SW and NW basin this weekend. Seas across the basin will be moderate to rough through the forecast period, higher in the central Caribbean through Fri night. Otherwise, fresh to strong NE winds are also expected in the Windward Passage tonight under the influence of the ridge. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. The Bermuda-Azores High dominates much of the basin. Therefore, the convection depicted in the basin is associated with tropical waves, the monsoon trough, and the ITCZ. Moderate to fresh trades prevail over most of the waters S of 29N, with gentle winds to the N. Strong winds are ongoing offshore the north coast of Hispaniola and in and near the Windward Passage. In the far eastern Atlantic in the vicinity of the Canary Islands, fresh to strong N to NE winds prevail. Seas of 5 to 8 ft dominate most of the basin, with lower seas of 3 to 5 ft closer to 31N and 4 to 6 ft S of 10N. For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will dominate the forecast waters into the weekend. Under this pressure gradient, moderate to fresh E to SE winds will continue south of 29N through Thu morning, then gentle to moderate speeds are expected through the remainder forecast period. However, pulsing easterly winds in the approaches of the Windward Passage and over northern Hispaniola adjacent waters will be fresh to strong through most of the forecast period. $$ ERA