000 AXNT20 KNHC 241728 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Jul 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis along 20W from 17N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Please see the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for information on convection. A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 54W from 16N southward, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W to 11N31W to 08N48W. The ITCZ continues from 08N48W to 07N53W and then from 07N55W to the coast of Guyana near 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 16W and 27W and from 05N to 11N between 31W and 53W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends across the basin anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure near Bermuda. A trough extends along the coast of South Texas/Mexico from 26N97W to 29N96W. Numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms are noted off the northeast Mexico and Texas coast, from 22N to 29N between 98W and 93W. These storms are producing frequent lightning and likely gusty winds with localized rough seas. Meanwhile, another trough is noted along the Florida Panhandle with scattered thunderstorms across portions of the northeast Gulf, N of 28N and E of 86W. Light to gentle winds are noted in the northern Gulf noted by the latest scatterometer data. Moderate SE winds are occurring in the southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida in addition to the western Gulf. In the western Gulf, seas range 4 to 5 ft. In the eastern basin, seas are 2 to 3 ft. For the forecast, high pressure will persist across the basin through the forecast period allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off NW Yucatan over the next several days. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the western Gulf associated with troughing, both at the surface and aloft, are expected to continue through at least early this evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure extends north of the basin, leading to a large area of moderate to fresh winds in the central Caribbean. Seas in this area range 6 to 8 ft confirmed by an earlier altimeter pass. Across the eastern and western basin, winds are moderate to locally fresh. Seas are 4 to 5 ft in the eastern basin and to 4 ft in the NW basin. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted across the SW Caribbean along the Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama coast north of the monsoon trough, from 09N to 15N and W of 79W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted in the eastern Caribbean from 11N to 16N between 63W and 68W. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over the eastern Caribbean. In the central Caribbean, easterly winds will remain fresh to strong, expanding to portions of the SW and NW basin this weekend. Seas across the basin will be moderate to rough through the forecast period, higher in the central Caribbean through Fri night. Otherwise, fresh to strong NE winds are also expected in the Windward Passage tonight under the influence of the ridge. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. The Bermuda-Azores high pressure dominates much of the basin. Along the western perimeter of the high, scattered thunderstorms are occurring across the NE Florida coast and adjacent waters. An upper-level low located northeast of the Bahamas is giving way to an area of scattered moderate convection from 21N to 28N between 62W and 75W. A trough is reflected at the surface with this convection from 27N67W to 23N70W with moderate winds adjacent to it. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere in the western Atlantic with seas 3 to 5 ft. Over the central Atlantic, a trough is noted on the edge of Saharan Dust from 26N52W to 19N56W. Due to the widespread dust across this area, limited convection is noted. Moderate to fresh winds are noted from 24N southward to the ITCZ/monsoon trough with seas 5 to 8 ft. From 24N to 31N, winds are light to gentle under the influence of the high pressure with 3 to 5 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, fairly quiet conditions are noted as the Bermuda-Azores high is also influencing this area. Gentle to moderate NE winds prevail with seas 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will dominate the forecast waters into the weekend. The associated pressure gradient will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds south of 29N through Thu morning, then gentle to moderate speeds are expected through the remainder forecast period. However, pulsing easterly winds in the approaches of the Windward Passage and over northern Hispaniola adjacent waters will be fresh to strong through most of the forecast period. $$ AKR