000 AXNT20 KNHC 250005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Jul 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 07N to 18N with axis near 24W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 12N between 20W and 30W. A tropical wave is just E of the Lesser Antilles with axis S of 17N near 58W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 12N between 55W and 60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the W coast of Africa near 16N16W to 12N28W to 09N40W. The ITCZ continues from 09N40W to 08N50W to 06N57W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 10N to 17N between 16W and 21W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 32W and 42W, and from 07N to 13N between 45W and 55W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends across the basin anchored by a pair of 1029 mb high pressure centers near E of Bermuda. Abundant moisture over the western basin continue to fuel scattered heavy showers and tstms which continue to produce frequent lightning and likely gusty winds with localized rough seas. A surface trough along the Florida Panhandle continue to generate similar shower activity across portions of the Florida coastal waters. Moderate SE winds are occurring across most of the Gulf, except off the Yucatan Peninsula where fresh NE winds are ongoing. For the forecast, high pressure will persist across the basin through the forecast period allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off NW Yucatan over the next several days. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the western Gulf associated with troughing, both at the surface and aloft, are expected to continue through at least Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Atlantic high pressure extends a ridge across the northern Caribbean and continue to support moderate to fresh easterly winds in the eastern basin and fresh to strong winds across the central waters. Seas are moderate in the E basin and moderate to rough in the central basin. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are ongoing in the NW Caribbean, except for fresh winds the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, scattered moderate convection is over the Nicaragua and E Honduras offshore waters. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over the eastern Caribbean. In the central Caribbean, easterly winds will remain fresh to strong, expanding to portions of the SW and NW basin this weekend. Seas across the basin will be moderate to rough through the forecast period, higher in the central Caribbean through Fri night. Otherwise, fresh to strong NE winds are also expected in the Windward Passage tonight under the influence of the ridge. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. The Bermuda-Azores high pressure dominates much of the basin and supports gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the E and central subtropical waters. Over the SW N Atlantic, the pressure gradient between two surface troughs and the ridge supports moderate to fresh E to SE winds, except for fresh to strong winds N of Hispaniola and approaches of the Windward Passage. For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will dominate the forecast waters into the weekend. The associated pressure gradient will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds south of 29N through Thu morning, then gentle to moderate speeds are expected through the remainder forecast period. However, pulsing easterly winds in the approaches of the Windward Passage and over northern Hispaniola adjacent waters will be fresh to strong through most of the forecast period. $$ Ramos