000 AXNT20 KNHC 250432 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jul 25 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0432 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 07N to 18N with axis near 25W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 10N between 24W and 31W. A tropical wave is just E of the Lesser Antilles with axis S of 17N near 59W, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 12.5N between 56W and 61W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the W coast of Africa near 21.5N17W to 10N32W to 09N43W. The ITCZ continues from 09N43W to 09N55.5W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 08N to 18N between 16W and 19W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 33.5W and 48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends across the basin anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure center E of Bermuda. Troughing, both at the surface and aloft over the western basin continue to fuel scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms which continue to produce frequent lightning and likely gusty winds with localized rough seas. A surface trough along the east coast of Florida continue to generate similar shower activity across portions of the Florida coastal waters. Another surface trough is over the Yucatan Peninsula and is producing scattered moderate convection over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate SE winds are occurring across most of the Gulf, except off the Yucatan Peninsula where fresh to locally strong NE winds are ongoing. Seas are 1 to 2 ft over the NE Gulf, while 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will persist across the basin through the forecast period allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off NW Yucatan over the next several days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the western Gulf associated with troughing, both at the surface and aloft, are expected to continue through at least Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak surface trough is between western Cuba and Jamaica producing scattered moderate convection along the Cuba offshore waters. Another surface trough is in between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic causing isolated moderate convection along the Mona Passage. Scattered moderate convection is over the Nicaragua and E Honduras offshore waters in association to the eastern end of the Pacific Monsoon trough. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure extends a ridge across the northern Caribbean and continue to support moderate to fresh easterly winds in the eastern basin and fresh to strong winds across the central waters. Seas are moderate in the E basin and moderate to rough in the central basin. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are ongoing in the NW Caribbean, except for fresh winds the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over the eastern Caribbean. In the central Caribbean, easterly winds will remain fresh to strong, expanding to portions of the SW and NW basin this weekend. Seas across the basin will be moderate to rough through the forecast period, higher in the central Caribbean through Fri night. Otherwise, fresh to strong NE winds are also expected in the Windward Passage tonight under the influence of the ridge. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A weak surface trough is producing isolated moderate convection from 23N to 28N between 67W and 72W. Otherwise, the Bermuda- Azores high pressure dominates much of the basin and supports gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the E and central subtropical waters. Over the SW N Atlantic, the pressure gradient between two surface troughs and the ridge supports moderate to fresh E to SE winds, except for fresh to strong winds N of Hispaniola and approaches of the Windward Passage. For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will dominate the forecast waters into the weekend. The associated pressure gradient will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds south of 29N through Thu morning, then gentle to moderate speeds are expected through the remainder forecast period. However, pulsing easterly winds in the approaches of the Windward Passage and over northern Hispaniola adjacent waters will be fresh to strong through most of the forecast period. $$ KRV