000
AXNT20 KNHC 251033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jul 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 07N to 18N 
with axis near 26W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 07N to 10N between 24W and 33W. 

A tropical wave is just E of the Lesser Antilles with axis S of
17N near 60W, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted along the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the W coast of Africa near 
22N17W to 09N49W. The ITCZ continues from 09N49W to 09N59W. 
Scattered moderate convection from 08N-20N and E of 20N. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 
33W and 47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the basin anchored by a 1028 mb 
high pressure center E of Bermuda. Troughing, both at the surface 
and aloft over the western basin continue to fuel scattered 
showers and thunderstorms producing frequent lightning and likely
gusty winds with localized rough seas. A surface trough along the
east coast of Florida continue to generate similar shower 
activity across portions of the Florida coastal waters. Another 
surface trough is over the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate 
SE winds are occurring across most of the Gulf, except off the 
Yucatan Peninsula where fresh to locally strong NE winds are 
ongoing. Seas are 1 to 2 ft over the NE Gulf, while 2 to 4 ft 
prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, high pressure will persist across the basin through
the forecast period allowing for gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off NW
Yucatan over the next several days. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the western Gulf associated with troughing,
both at the surface and aloft, are expected to continue through
at least Thu. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak surface trough is across the Mona Passage producing 
scattered moderate convection. Another area of scattered moderate
convection is over the Nicaragua and E Honduras offshore waters. 
Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure extends a ridge across the 
northern Caribbean and continue to support moderate to fresh 
easterly winds in the eastern basin and fresh to strong winds 
across the central waters. Seas are moderate in the E basin and 
moderate to rough in the central basin. Otherwise, gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are ongoing in the NW 
Caribbean, except for fresh winds the Gulf of Honduras. 

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic
will sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over the 
eastern Caribbean. In the central Caribbean, easterly winds will 
remain fresh to strong, expanding to portions of the SW and NW 
basin this weekend. Seas across the basin will be moderate to 
rough through the forecast period, higher in the central Caribbean
through Fri night. Otherwise, fresh to strong NE winds are also 
expected in the Windward Passage tonight under the influence of 
the ridge. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin. 

A weak surface trough is producing scattered moderate convection 
from 25N to 29N between 68W and 75W. Otherwise, the Bermuda- 
Azores high pressure dominates much of the basin and supports 
gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the E and central 
subtropical waters. Over the SW N Atlantic, the pressure gradient 
between two surface troughs and the ridge supports moderate to 
fresh E to SE winds, except for fresh to strong winds N of 
Hispaniola and approaches of the Windward Passage.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the central
Atlantic will dominate the forecast waters into the weekend. The 
associated pressure gradient will maintain moderate to fresh E to 
SE winds south of 29N through this morning, then gentle to 
moderate speeds are expected through the remainder forecast 
period. However, pulsing easterly winds in the approaches of the 
Windward Passage and over northern Hispaniola adjacent waters will
be fresh through most of the forecast period. 

$$
ERA