000 AXNT20 KNHC 251714 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Jul 25 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis near 28W, from 07N to 21N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 24W and 33W. A tropical wave passing through the Lesser Antilles is currently along 62W, from 17N southward, moving quickly W at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 64W and 67W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes from the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to 09N50W. The ITCZ continues from 09N50W to 09N58W. In addition to convection described in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted near the monsoon trough from 08N to 15N east of 20W. Scattered showers are elsewhere in the vicinity of the ITCZ and Monsoon Trough. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends across the basin anchored by the 1028 mb Bermuda High. A surface trough located just inland along the Texas and Mexico coast continues to fuel scattered moderate convection near the NE Texas and W Louisiana coastlines, north of 28N between 92W and 95W. A weak surface trough is analyzed in the NE Gulf, with only a few showers nearby. The diurnal trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche, with no showers or convection noted at this time in the vicinity of the trough. Light to gentle E winds prevail across much of the basin, with seas of 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, high pressure will persist across the basin through the forecast period allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off NW Yucatan over the next several days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the western Gulf N of about 26N and W of 94W associated with troughing and low pressure, both at the surface and aloft, are expected through continue through at least Fri evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for information on convection associated with the wave passing through the Lesser Antilles. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from the coast of Panama north to 11N west of 80W. This area of convection may be enhanced by the East Pacific Monsoon Trough and 1010 mb Colombian/Panamanian Low. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 17N west of 84W, including the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, surface ridging extends from the Bermuda High across the Caribbean, providing moderate to fresh trades. Seas are 6-9 ft in the central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over the eastern Caribbean. In the central Caribbean, easterly winds will pulse to fresh to strong, expanding to portions of the SW and NW basin this weekend, at which time winds may reach to near gale. Seas across the basin will be moderate to rough through the forecast period, higher in the central Caribbean through Fri night. Otherwise, mostly fresh NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage tonight under the influence of the ridge. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A weak surface trough is producing scattered moderate convection from 23N to 29N between 66W and 74W. Otherwise, the Bermuda High continues to dominate much of the basin, supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds nearly everywhere. Seas are 4-7 ft across the basin, reaching locally 8 ft near Barbados and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will dominate the forecast waters into the weekend. The associated pressure gradient will maintain gentle to moderate wind speeds through the remainder of the forecast period. However, pulsing easterly winds in the approaches of the Windward Passage and over northern Hispaniola adjacent waters will be fresh through most of the forecast period. $$ Adams/Mahoney