000 AXNT20 KNHC 260435 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jul 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0425 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W, south of 21N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 13N and between 25W and 37W. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 72W, south of 21N, moving westward at 25 kt. No significant convection is noted over water. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 17N17W and continues southwestward to 11N31W and to 08N49W. The ITCZ extends from 08N49W to 06N55W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 11N and between 37W and 54W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough in the central Gulf waters continues to produce isolated showers in the vicinity. Scattered showers are also noted in the western Gulf, off Tamaulipas. A 1021 mb high pressure system over the Mississippi Valley supports moderate or weaker winds across the basin. Seas of 2-4 ft are occurring south of 26N and 1-2 ft north of 26N. For the forecast, high pressure will persist across the basin through the forecast period allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off NW Yucatan over the next several days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf associated with troughing and low pressure, both at the surface and aloft, are expected through continue through at least Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen on latest satellite imagery in the SW Caribbean and off NE Honduras. Generally dry conditions are noted elsewhere. A 1025 mb high pressure system centered east of Bermuda extends southward into the basin. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to locally near gale- force easterly trade winds in the central, SW and eastern Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured the strongest winds occurring off northern Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate are prevalent in the remainder of the Caribbean. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will build over the eastern Caribbean through Sun, following a tropical wave that will move through the western Caribbean. This pattern will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean into the middle of next week. Expect fresh E to SE winds and building seas over the northwest Caribbean early in the week following the tropical wave, with locally strong winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Honduras Sun night. Looking ahead, a surface low in the SW Caribbean will meander through the weekend, drifting to near the coast of Nicaragua late Sat into Sun. The low will pull moisture from the monsoon trough, and will enhance convergence over portions of western Panama and Costa Rica Fri onward. Additional atmospheric ingredients will lead to the potential for periods of moderate to heavy rain Fri into Sun from western Panama to eastern Nicaragua into northern Honduras. This rain could be significant, causing flooding and possible mudslides. Please refer to your local and national meteorological agency for details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An broad upper level low located off the central Bahamas is inducing a few showers between Bermuda and Hispaniola. The rest of the basin is under the influence of an expansive subtropical ridge positioned east of Bermuda. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds are found south of 27N and between 60W and 75W, with the strongest winds occurring off northern Hispaniola. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. The ridge is also forcing moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 22N and west of 45W, supporting seas of 5-8 ft. In the far northeast Atlantic, moderate to locally strong northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are noted north of 26N and east of 20W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that the strongest winds are affecting the water passages of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will dominate the forecast waters into the weekend. The associated pressure gradient will generally maintain gentle to moderate winds north 22N through the period. Mostly fresh E winds will pulse over the waters between Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos into the middle of next week. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase northeast of the Leeward islands by late Tue associated with an approaching tropical wave.. $$ Delgado