000 AXNT20 KNHC 260902 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jul 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 19N, south of 20N, moving west 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 11N to 14N between 17W and 20W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 32W, south of 21N, moving westward 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 09N to 12N and between 29W and 31W. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 73W, south of 21N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 13N50W. The ITCZ extends from 13N50W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 08N to 10N and between 40W and 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough in the central Gulf waters continues to produce isolated showers in the vicinity. Scattered showers are also noted in the western Gulf, off Tamaulipas. A 1021 mb high pressure system over the Mississippi Valley supports moderate or weaker winds across the basin. Seas of 2-4 ft are occurring south of 26N and 1-2 ft north of 26N. For the forecast, high pressure will persist across the basin through late Tue allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off NW Yucatan over the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A recent scatterometer satellite pass along with buoy data confirmed fresh to strong trade winds across all but the northwest Caribbean, supporting 8 to 10 ft seas. The convergence of the trade winds along with divergent flow aloft and rich deep layer moisture is supporting a line of thunderstorms over the southwest Caribbean from central Panama to southeast Nicaragua. Gentle to moderate E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted over the northwest Caribbean. For the forecast, conditions will remain in place for the potential for heavy rainfall over the southwest Caribbean, including western Panama and Costa Rica today through Sat, and over eastern Nicaragua and northeast Honduras Sat into Sun. This rain could be significant, causing flooding and possible mudslides. Please refer to your local and national meteorological agency for details. Elsewhere, the Atlantic ridge will build over the eastern Caribbean through Sun, following a tropical wave that will move through the western Caribbean. This pattern will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean into the middle of next week. Expect fresh E to SE winds and building seas over the northwest Caribbean early in the week following the tropical wave, with locally strong winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Honduras Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An broad upper level low located off the central Bahamas is supporting clusters of thunderstorms from 22N to 28N between 65W and 78W. A broad ridge centered on 1024 mb high pressure centered east of Bermuda near 32N60W. This is supporting E to SE winds south of 22N and west of 55W, with 6 to 8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere, except for fresh to strong NE winds through the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will dominate the forecast waters through Sat, then will shift eastward ahead of a weak cold front moving off the Carolina coast. The front will stall of northeast Florida Sun, then dissipate Mon. The pattern will support fresh to strong E winds off Hispaniola through Sun, and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere into Tue. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase northeast of the Leeward Islands by late Tue associated with an approaching tropical wave. $$ Christensen