000 AXNT20 KNHC 271738 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Jul 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W, from 22N southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N to 15N within 150 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 330 nm to the west of the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W, from 22N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is between the 27W tropical wave and this wave from 06N to 15N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W, from 20N southward, moving westward 20 knots to 25 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 570 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 150 nm to the west of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 14N17W, to 15N23W 13N33W 11N43W 08N46W. The ITCZ continues from 08N46W, to 05N53W at the coast of French Guiana. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is inland and in the coastal waters from 08N to 12N between 12W and 16W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 05N to 16N from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow is off the coast of the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong convective precipitation is along the coast of Mexico from 20N to 24N. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong convective precipitation, are in the coastal waters and in the coastal plains of Louisiana and Texas. The same type of convective precipitation is to the west of the line that runs from the Straits of Florida to coastal Mississippi. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is in that area. A weak surface ridge passes through 29N72W in the Atlantic Ocean, to Florida along 28N, to 27N93W in the NW corner of the Gulf. Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, cover the Gulf. An exception is from moderate to fresh NE winds from 23N southward between 90W and 93W, to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula. A ridge will remain in place across the Gulf waters through Wed allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off NW Yucatan during the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes through 24N72W just off the Bahamas, to 17N79W in the Caribbean Sea, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 70W westward. Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and moderate to rough seas, are from 18N southward between 70W and 80W. Fresh to moderate NE to E winds are from 70W eastward, and from 80W westward. Moderate seas are in much of the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. An exception is for slight seas from 17N northward from 80W westward. A tropical wave will move westward across the northwest Caribbean today. The Atlantic ridge is building over the eastern and central Caribbean in the wake of the wave. This pattern will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean into the middle of the week. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE winds and building seas over the northwest Caribbean behind the wave axis through Sun with locally strong winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Honduras Sun night. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase northeast of the Leeward Islands Tue night into Wed ahead of an approaching tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 23N northward from 80W eastward. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 33N31W. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 32N53W. An upper level trough passes through 31N56W, to 25N61W 24N72W, to 17N79W in the Caribbean Sea, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are to the west of 31N50W 20N60W 17N60W. Slight seas are from 20N northward between 20W and 40W; and from 25N northward from 40W westward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh N to NE winds are from 22N northward from 20W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The Bermuda-Azores high will dominate the Atlantic forecast waters through the next several days. It will shift eastward ahead of a weak cold front moving off the Carolina coast today. The front will stall then dissipate between northeast Florida and Bermuda Sun into Mon. The pattern will support fresh winds south of 22N, and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere into mid week. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase northeast of the Leeward Islands Tue night into Wed ahead of an approaching tropical wave. $$ mt/gr