000 AXNT20 KNHC 271953 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Jul 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic Ocean to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 28.5W from 21N southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. A tropical wave is moving from the eastern to the central Atlantic Ocean near 40W from 22N southward, moving west at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. A tropical wave has exited the NW Caribbean Sea now near 89.5W/90W over the western Yucatan Peninsula southward to across eastern Guatemala, moving quickly westward at 20-25 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave over the NW Caribbean Sea. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 14N16W to 12N40W to 08.5N52W. The ITCZ extends from 08.5N52W to near the coast and border of Guyana and Venezuela at 08.5N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between Africa and 20W, from 10N to 15N between 24N and 34W, and from 07N to 10N between 45W and 52W. GULF OF MEXICO... The remnants of a weak surface trough in the NW Gulf combined with divergence aloft continues to generate showers and thunderstorms mainly north of 26N and west of 90W. Similar activity is noted in the NE Gulf coastal waters. Otherwise, the Gulf of Mexico is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic that extends westward into the basin. Winds are moderate or weaker across the basin outside of any thunderstorms. Seas are 1-3 ft across the NE half of the basin, and 2-4 ft across the SW half. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place across the Gulf waters through Thu allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh winds are expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night during the forecast period due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad upper level trough centered near the central Bahamas induces scattered showers and thunderstorms of the basin between 77W and 84W. Fresh to strong trades and 6-9 ft seas are from 11N to 18N between 70W and 80W. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere in the basin along with 4-7 ft seas, except light and variable winds in the SW Caribbean south of 11N. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge is building over the eastern and central Caribbean in the wake of a tropical wave currently moving across the northwest Caribbean. This pattern will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean into the middle of the week. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE winds and building seas over the northwest Caribbean behind the wave axis through Sun, with locally strong winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Honduras Sun night. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase northeast of the Leeward Islands Tue night into Wed ahead of an approaching tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad upper level trough from 30N55W to the central Bahamas continues to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 22N and west of 72W. At the surface, the basin is dominated by an expansive subtropical ridge extending from the Bermuda-Azores high. Winds are fresh near the north coast of Hispaniola. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker, except fresh south of the Cabo Verde Islands, and locally fresh to strong north of 20N between the coast of Africa and the Canary Islands. Seas are 3-5 ft north of 20N and west of 35W. Seas are 4-6 ft across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores high will dominate the Atlantic forecast waters through the next several days. It will shift eastward ahead of a weak cold front forecast to stall and dissipate between northeast Florida and Bermuda Sun into Mon. The pattern will support fresh winds south of 22N, and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere into mid week. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase northeast of the Leeward Islands Tue night into Wed ahead of an approaching tropical wave. $$ Lewitsky