000 AXNT20 KNHC 280553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jul 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 29W, south of 22N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10 kt. No deep convection near the trough axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 11N37W and to 07N54W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 07N to 12N and east of 22W. Scattered moderate convection is found from 07N to 12N and between 44W and 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure over New England extends southward into the Gulf the Mexico. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in Mexico sustain moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds in the western and central Gulf, especially west of a line from the western tip of Cuba to the mouth of the Mississippi River. Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail in the remainder of the basin. A few showers are noted in the eastern and NW Gulf. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place across the Gulf waters through Thu allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh winds are expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night during the forecast period due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture continue to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 16N and west of 77W. The Caribbean Sea is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic, forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central, SW and NW Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured the strongest winds off northern Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean, south of 12N in the SW Caribbean, the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge is building over the eastern and central Caribbean, supporting fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean into the middle of the week. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE winds and building seas over the northwest Caribbean through Sun, with locally strong winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Honduras Sun night. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase northeast of the Leeward Islands Tue night into Wed ahead of an approaching tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front north of the area supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 28N and west of 70W. Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds are occurring north of 28N and between 65W and 77W. Farther east, water vapor imagery depict an upper level low near 30N57W producing scattered showers north of 25N and between 53W and 59W. The rest of the basin is under a broad subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are noted off Western Sahara and Morocco to 20W and north of 20N. The strongest winds are present in the water passages of the Canary Islands. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores high will dominate the Atlantic forecast waters through the next several days. It will shift eastward ahead of a weak cold front forecast to stall and dissipate between northeast Florida and Bermuda Sun into Mon. The pattern will support fresh winds south of 22N, and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere into mid week. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase northeast of the Leeward Islands Tue night into Wed ahead of an approaching tropical wave. $$ Delgado