000 AXNT20 KNHC 280959 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jul 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W, south of 22N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is evident with this tropical wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is evident with this tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 11N37W and to 10N50W. The ITCZ extends from 10N50W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 15N to 20N. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure over New England extends southward into the Gulf the Mexico. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the basin, except for moderate to fresh E winds across the Bay of Campeche. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the eastern Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. A few showers and thunderstorms are active along the coast of Veracruz, Mexico, and over the central Texas coast. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place across the Gulf waters through Thu allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh winds are expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night during the forecast period due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture continue to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms off Cabo Gracias a Dios in eastern Honduras and northeast Nicaragua, and near the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border. The Caribbean Sea is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic, forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central, SW and NW Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass captured the strongest winds off northern Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean, south of 12N in the SW Caribbean, the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge is building over the eastern and central Caribbean, supporting fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean into the middle of the week. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE winds and building seas over the northwest Caribbean today, with locally strong winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase northeast of the Leeward Islands Tue night into Wed ahead of an approaching tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front off northeast Florida along 30N supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 28N between 70W and 75W. Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds are occurring north of 28N and between 65W and 77W to the south of the frontal boundary. Farther east, water vapor imagery depict an upper level low near 30N57W producing scattered showers from 28N to 30N between 55W and 58W. The rest of the basin is under a broad subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are noted off Western Sahara and Morocco to 20W and north of 20N. The strongest winds are present in the water passages of the Canary Islands. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front off northeast Florida along 30N will gradually dissipate through Mon. The Bermuda-Azores high pressure will build across the region thereafter into mid-week, supporting gentle to moderate winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N. Looking ahead, winds and seas associated with a vigorous tropical wave may increase northeast of the Leeward Islands Tue night into Wed, then move to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through Thu. $$ Christensen