000 AXNT20 KNHC 282109 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jul 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic Ocean near 33W, from 20N southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is noted nearby. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic ocean near 46.5W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Nearby convection is described below in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section. A tropical wave is along 95W, from 20N southward, moving west at around 10 kt. This tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche. No significant convection is noted nearby in the Gulf of Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the border of Senegal and The Gambia near 12N16W to 12N47W. The ITCZ extends from 12N47W to just northeast of Guyana near 08.5N58.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10.5N between 16W and 23W, and from 11N to 13N between 48W and 57W. GULF OF MEXICO... Ridging dominates the basin with light to gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas in the northeast half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds and 2-5 ft seas in the southwest half of the Gulf. Limited isolated showers or thunderstorms are present with mainly fair conditions across the basin. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place from the eastern U.S. across the eastern Gulf waters through Thu allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh winds are expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night during the forecast period due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms offshore Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are also noted in the central basin from 13N to 18N between 72W and 79W. Fresh to strong winds are in the central basin from 11N to 18N between 72W to offshore Nicaragua and to the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 6-10 ft across these waters. Moderate trades and 4-6 ft seas dominate the remainder of the basin, except light and variable winds in the SW Caribbean south of 11N. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends from the central Atlantic SW to the central Bahamas and is building over the eastern and central Caribbean. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean that will persist into the middle of the week. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE winds and building seas over the west and northwest Caribbean, with locally strong winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase northeast of the Leeward Islands Tue night through Wed associated with of an approaching strong tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front off northeast Florida along 30N to 1015 mb low pressure near 32N71W supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of it to 27N between 67W and the coast of Florida including across portions of the northern Bahamas. Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds are occurring north of 29N and between 65W and 74W to the south of the frontal boundary. A cold front is just NW of the Canary Islands. The rest of the basin is under a broad subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are noted off Western Sahara and Mauritania to 20W and north of 19N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas of mainly 4-6 ft are present. For the forecast west of 55W, a nearly stationary front off northeast Florida along 30N will drift SE and gradually dissipate through Mon. The Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge will build across the region thereafter into mid-week, supporting gentle to moderate winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N. Looking ahead, winds and seas associated with a vigorous tropical wave will increase northeast of the Leeward Islands Tue night into Wed, then move to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through Thu. $$ Lewitsky