000
AXNT20 KNHC 290459
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jul 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0455 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W, south 
of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near 
the trough axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 48W, south of
20N, moving westward at 10 kt. A few showers are present near the
trough axis south of 13N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 12N35W and 
to 11N51W. The ITCZ extends from 11N51W to 09N61W. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed from 05N to 11N and east of 24W. 
Similar convection is also occurring within 90 nm on both sides of
the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 39W and 45W and between 50W 
and 57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the eastern United States extends southward 
into the Gulf the Mexico. The pressure gradient between this ridge
and lower pressures in Mexico sustain moderate to locally fresh 
E-SE winds in the western and central Gulf. Seas in these waters 
are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail in the 
remainder of the basin. A few showers are noted in the eastern Bay
of Campeche.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place from the eastern U.S.
across the eastern Gulf waters through Thu allowing for gentle
to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh winds are
expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night
during at least through the middle of the week due to local 
effects. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad 1028 mb high pressure system near 37N47W extends southwestward
into the Caribbean Sea, forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds
in the south-central, SW Caribbean, Windward Passage and Gulf of 
Honduras. Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft. The strongest winds 
and highest seas are occurring off NW Colombia. Moderate to locally
fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern
and north-central Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight 
to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends from the central
Atlantic SW to the central Bahamas and is building over the 
eastern and central Caribbean. This pattern is supporting fresh to
strong trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean 
that will persist into the middle of the week. Expect moderate to 
fresh E to SE winds and building seas over the west and northwest 
Caribbean, with locally strong winds and rough seas across the 
Gulf of Honduras tonight. Looking ahead, winds and seas will 
increase northeast of the Leeward Islands Tue night through Wed 
associated with of an approaching strong tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from a 1014 mb low pressure system near
32N71W to NE Florida. A surface trough is noted a few degrees south
of the front, producing scattered showers south of the boundary. 
Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are 
found north of 28N and between 64W and 71W. 

The rest of the basin is under a broad subtropical ridge positioned
over the central Atlantic. A scatterometer satellite pass from a 
few hours ago captured fresh to locally strong northerly winds from
17N to 23N and east of 22W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Farther
south, moderate to locally strong S-SW and seas of 7-10 ft are present
south of 09N and east of 23W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are present.

For the forecast west of 55W, a nearly stationary front off
northeast Florida along roughly 30N will gradually dissipate 
through Mon. The Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge will build 
across the region thereafter into mid-week, supporting gentle to 
moderate winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 
22N. Looking ahead, winds and seas associated with a vigorous 
tropical wave will increase northeast of the Leeward Islands Tue 
night into Wed, then move to the north of Puerto Rico and 
Hispaniola through Thu.


$$
Delgado