000 AXNT20 KNHC 291750 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Jul 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W, from 19N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are from 15N to 22N between 34W and 44W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/49W, from 18N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 04N to 20N between 40W and 60W. A surface trough is along 54W/56W from Suriname to 10N, in the scatterometer wind field. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and comparatively drier air in subsidence in the water vapor satellite imagery, are from 10N to 24N between 36W and 54W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal and Gambia, from 13N to 14N between 16W and 17W, to 12N20W, and then along 11N/12N between 20W and 57W. Precipitation: widely scattered to isolated strong is from 05N to the monsoon trough between 15W and 25W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating stationary front is in the Atlantic Ocean from 28N to 31N between 70W and the SE U.S.A. A surface trough is from 60 nm to 120 nm to the south of the dissipating stationary front. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 24N northward between 66W in the Atlantic Ocean and 90W in the Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the area. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SW corner of the Gulf. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 20N southward from 94W westward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 25N southward from the Yucatan Peninsula westward. Slight seas, and moderate or slower winds, cover the Gulf. An exception is for moderate to fresh NE to E winds within 200 nm of the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A ridge will remain in place from the eastern U.S. across the eastern Gulf waters through Fri allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh winds are expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night during at least through the middle of the week due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 74W in Colombia, beyond southern Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 11N southward from 80W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally strong convective precipitation, are from 69W westward. Most of the precipitation is between 70W and 80W. Strong NE winds are from SW Hispaniola southward between 71W and 83W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Rough seas are from 11N to 17N between the Windward Passage and 80W. Slight seas are in the eastern one- third of the area. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 29/1200 UTC, are: 0.48 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. A ridge extends from the central Atlantic to the central Bahamas and is building over the eastern and central Caribbean. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean that will persist into Wed. A tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean Tue night and move into the central Caribbean. This will break up the dominance of the ridge, and allow winds and seas to diminish slightly as the tropical wave moves across the central Caribbean through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating stationary front is from 28N to 31N between 70W and the SE U.S.A. A surface trough is from 60 nm to 120 nm to the south of the dissipating stationary front. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 24N northward between 66W in the Atlantic Ocean and 90W in the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh SW winds are from 27N northward between 66W and 70W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally strong convective precipitation, are from 22N northward between 50W and 63W. A surface trough, that is remaining from an earlier cold front, is along 30N13W 24N22W 30N28W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in the satellite imagery. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 22N northward between 32W and 67W. A 1029 mb high pressure center is near 36N52W. Rough seas are to the south of 10N14W 06N25W, to the Equator along 32W. Slight seas are from 27N northward between 30W and 60W; and from 60W westward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Strong E to SE winds are from 02N southward from 48W westward. Fresh NE winds are from 15N to 28N between 37W and 50W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are from 10N to 26N between 50W and 63W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 19N northward from 24W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge will build across the region thereafter into mid-week, supporting gentle to moderate winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N. Looking ahead, winds and seas associated with a vigorous tropical wave will increase northeast of the Leeward Islands Tue night into Wed, then move to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through Thu, and across the Bahamas Fri. $$ mt/ja