000 AXNT20 KNHC 300525 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Jul 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Satellite imagery and wave diagnostic data indicate that the waves we have been tracking in the tropical Atlantic have merged into a broad, single wave. The wave axis is analyzed along 48W, south of 21N, moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated showers are noted between 42W and 56W and south of 21N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of The Gambia near 13.5N16.5W and continues southwestward to 09N30W, then to 13N47W and to 10N55W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N and between 18W and 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... Isolated showers are noted in the northern Gulf waters, with the strongest convection occurring off western Florida. The western extent of a 1030 mb ridge over the north Atlantic dominates the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in Mexico support moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds west of a line from NE Yucatan to SW Louisiana. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place from the eastern U.S. across the eastern Gulf waters through Fri allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh winds are expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night during the next few days due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong subtropical ridge north of the area extends into the Caribbean Sea, supporting strong to locally near gale-force easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted in the eastern Caribbean, north-central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent. For the forecast, high pressure north of the region along with lower pressure over Colombia are together supporting fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean. A tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic will enter the eastern Caribbean Tue night into early Wed, then move across the central Caribbean Thu and Fri. This will break up the dominance of the ridge, and allow winds and seas to diminish slightly across the central Caribbean. However, there is some potential for a tropical depression to form late this week in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. A surface trough extends from 31N70W to east-central Florida, producing scattered showers within 90 nm on both sides of the boundary. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a strong high pressure system located in the north Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in moderate to occasionally strong easterly winds north of 16N and between 37W and 70W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Farther east, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are found south of the monsoon trough and east of 30W. Stronger winds are evident on a recent scatterometer satellite pass in association with the strongest convection. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are present. For the forecast west of 55W, a trough extends from just west of Bermuda to near Fort Pierce, Florida, displacing the Atlantic ridge farther to the east. This pattern is supporting light to gentle breezes and slight seas north of 22N, and moderate winds and seas south fo 22N. The trough will shift north of the area Tue, allowing the ridge to build westward from the central Atlantic to central Florida. Winds and seas associated with a vigorous tropical wave will increase northeast of the Leeward Islands Tue night into Wed, then move to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through Thu, across the Bahamas Fri and Fri night and north-northeast of the Bahamas Sat and Sat night. There is some potential for a tropical depression to form late this week in the vicinity of the Bahamas. $$ Delgado