000 AXNT20 KNHC 302235 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Jul 31 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 52W, south of 23N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted near this wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal and The Gambia near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 09N39W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 08N56W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N and between 20W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are still active off the coast of west-central Florida along a surface trough, analyzed along 25N and E of 86W. A 1020 mb high pressure is centered near 27N90W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to locally fresh E winds near the trough. Moderate SE winds are west of the high pressure over the northwest Gulf. Seas are 2-5 ft across the western half of the basin. Light breezes and 1-2 ft seas prevail over the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, the weak ridge will remain in place from the eastern U.S. across the eastern Gulf waters through Sat allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh winds are expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night during the next couple of days due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong subtropical ridge north of the area extends into the Caribbean, supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. This was confirmed by an earlier scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted in the eastern Caribbean, north-central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent. For the forecast, high pressure across the N central Atlantic extends SW to the central Bahamas. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean. A tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic will enter the eastern Caribbean tonight into early Wed, then move across the central Caribbean Thu and Fri. This will break up the dominance of the ridge, and allow winds and seas to diminish slightly across the central Caribbean. However, there is some potential for a tropical depression to form late this week in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or Bahamas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along a surface trough that extends from 31N71W to 27N80W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a strong high pressure system located in the north Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the tropical wave along 52W is supporting fresh trade winds and 6-8 ft seas from 20N to 25N between 50W and 60W. Farther east, moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are found south of the monsoon trough and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are present. For the forecast west of 55W, the trough in the western Atlantic will shift north of the area tonight, allowing the ridge to build westward from the N central Atlantic to central Florida. Winds and seas associated with a tropical wave will increase northeast of the Leeward Islands tonight into Wed, then shift to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through Thu, across the Bahamas Fri and Fri night and north-northeast of the Bahamas Sat and Sat night. There is some potential for a tropical depression to form late this week in the vicinity of the Bahamas. $$ ERA