000 AXNT20 KNHC 310928 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Jul 31 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands near 28W from 16N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is evident near this tropical wave. A pronounced tropical wave is near 59W approaching the Lesser Antilles south of 21N, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring from 16N to 22N between 53W and 65W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W, then curves southwestward through 09N25W to 08N45W. An ITCZ continues westward from 08N45W to 09N53W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 06n to 08N between 29W and 31W. Aided by an upper-level trough in the vicinity, the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering numerous heavy showers and scattered strong thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and Panama. ...GULF OF MEXICO... 1018 mb high pressure is centered along the coast of the western Florida Panhandle near 30N86W. A weak surface trough is analyzed over the south-central Gulf, just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to fresh winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are likely off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Farther west, a recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate E to SE winds over the western Gulf, where seas are likely 2 to 4 ft. Light breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere. No significant convection evident at this time. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through Sun. Fresh winds are expected near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula at night during the next couple of days due to local effects. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent buoy data along with scatterometer and altimeter satellite data show fresh to strong trade winds and seas to at least 9 ft are ongoing across much of the south-central and southwest Caribbean, between high pressure north of the area and lower pressure over South America. Gentle to moderate trade winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. In addition to the convection already mentioned that is active across the Leeward Islands and off Panama and Costa Rica, a small cluster of thunderstorms is active in the Windward Passage. For the forecast, a tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean today, then move across the central Caribbean Thu and Fri and the western Caribbean Sun. This will break up the dominance of the ridge, and allow winds and seas to diminish slightly across the central Caribbean. However, there is some potential for a tropical depression to form late this week in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or Bahamas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 1029 mb high pressure centered near 37N50W dominates the subtropical Atlantic. The gradient between the high pressure and a tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles is supporting a large of fresh to strong E winds and 7 to 9 ft seas from 18N to 25N between 45W and 65W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere across the region. In addition to the convection already mentioned near the Leeward Islands a few showers and thunderstorms are active off northeast Florida. For the forecast, the tropical wave and attendant winds and seas will shift to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through Thu. A trough will continue to move northwest across the Bahamas Fri and Fri night, then move north- northeast of the Bahamas Sat and Sun. There is some potential for a tropical depression to form late this week in the vicinity of the Bahamas or Florida over the weekend. $$ Christensen