000 AXNT20 KNHC 312253 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Aug 1 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is W of the Cabo Verde islands. Its axis is along 30W from 16N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted across the southern half of the wave, mainly S of 10N. A well defined tropical wave has entered the eastern Caribbean and is producing a broad area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity that is currently affecting the Leeward Islands, the US/UK Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, including the regional waters. Its axis is now along 65W south of 21N. It is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development as the system moves generally west-northwestward towards the Bahamas and Cuba. A tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week when the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, or near Florida. Interests in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of this system. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to 08N44W. The ITCZ extends from 08N44W to 10N57W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 12N between 40W and 51W. Aided by an upper-level trough in the vicinity, the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering numerous showers and thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean waters. This convective activity is affecting parts of Nicaragua and Honduras, as well as their adjacent waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the Gulf waters with a 1020 mb high pressure centered along the coast of the western Florida Big Bend near 29N84W. Another 1020 mb high pressure is analyzed near 27N93W. Under the influence of the ridge, light to gentle winds are noted E of 94W with gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft, except 3 to 4 over the southwestern Gulf. For the forecast, weak ridge will remain in place from the southeastern U.S. across the eastern Gulf waters through Sat allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh winds are expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night during the next couple of days due to local effects. A tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean today will impact portions of the southeast Gulf and Straits of Florida with active weather Sat through Sun, and a tropical depression could form there. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A well defined tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for more details. Moisture associated with this wave is forecast to reach Hispaniola on Thu. A recent scatterometer pass indicates moderate to fresh E to SE winds on the E side of the wave axis mainly N of 15N. Recent buoy data along with scatterometer and altimeter satellite data show fresh to strong trade winds and seas to at least 9 ft are ongoing across much of the central and southwest Caribbean, between the Bermuda-Azores high and the Colombian low. Gentle to moderate trade winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, a vigorous tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic and eastern Caribbean will move across the central Caribbean Thu through Fri and the western Caribbean Sun. This will break up the dominance of the ridge, and allow winds and seas to diminish slightly across the central Caribbean. However, there is some potential for a tropical depression to form late this week in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or Bahamas. Despite of its development, expect strong thunderstorms to affect Hispaniola and its adjacent waters through this period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A well defined tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean affecting the Leeward islands and the waters N of Puerto Rico. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for more details. High pressure of 1029 mb located N of area near 37N51W dominates the Atlantic forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and the tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean is supporting a large area of fresh to strong E winds and 8 to 9 ft seas from 18N to 25N between 55W and 65W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere across the region. In addition to the convection already mentioned near the Leeward Islands, scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off northeast Florida. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh winds, rough seas and numerous squalls extend from the NE Caribbean north and northeastward across the Tropical Atlantic, on the north side of a tropical wave moving into the area today. The tropical wave and attendant winds, seas and weather will shift across the waters to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through Thu. A trough will continue to move west-northwest across the Bahamas Thu night through Fri night, then continue west-northwest Sat and Sun and impact portions of the Straits of Florida, South Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico. There is some potential for a tropical depression to form this weekend across that area. $$ ERA