000 AXNT20 KNHC 010540 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Aug 1 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Winds at the Canary Islands: Meteo-France issued a Gale Warning for their Canarias Marine Zone from 01/15Z to 02/00Z. Please visit website: https://wwww.wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more detail. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 31W from 16N southward, and moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted west of the wave from 06N to 09N between 31W and 37W. A robust tropical wave is near 66W from east of the southeast Bahamas at 23N southeastward across Puerto Rico into northeastern Venezuela. It is moving west around 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring from 15N to 25N between 60W and 70W, including Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development after the wave passes the Greater Antilles, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or far southwestern Atlantic Ocean, including in the vicinity of Florida. Interests across the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this system. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Mauritian and Senegal, then curves southwestward through 11N30W to 08N45W. An ITCZ continues northwestward from 08N45W to 10N54W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 12N between 40W and 51W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the trough from 06N to 09N between 21W and 25W, and up to 60 nm along either side of ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends southwestward from southeastern Georgia across the Florida Panhandle to the central Gulf. Isolated thunderstorms are flaring up at the northeastern, central, southwestern and west-central Gulf. A surface ridge runs southward from a 1018 mb high west of New Orleans to the central Bay of Campeche. Moderate with locally fresh NE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are present at the eastern and central Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas exist at the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the surface ridge will persist through Sat and sustain gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas. Fresh winds are expected near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula at night during the next couple of days due to local effects. A tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean will impact portions of the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida with active weather this weekend, and a tropical depression could form there. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Interaction between a surface trough and an upper-level low at the northwestern basin is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Bay of Honduras and near the coast of Nicaragua. Convergent trades are producing isolated but strong thunderstorms near eastern Cuba and southern Haiti. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Gradient between the Atlantic Ridge near 27N and lower pressure at northwestern Colombia is causing fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted at the north-central and southwestern basin, and the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage, except light to gentle winds with 3 to 5 ft seas in moderate NE swell near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, a vigorous tropical wave over the tropical western Atlantic and eastern basin will move across the central basin Thu through Fri and western basin Sat. This will break up the dominance of the ridge, and allow winds and seas to diminish slightly across the central basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase again across mainly the south-central basin by late Sun as high pressure builds in the wake of the tropical wave. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough sections for convection in the Atlantic Basin. Near the northern portion of a pronounced tropical wave, moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident from 20N to 26N between 55W and 70W. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are seen near the central and southeast Bahamas. Otherwise, a large 1029 mb high at the north-central Atlantic is supporting gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft north of 20N between 25W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Near the Canary Islands, fresh to strong NNE to NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and 25W. For the tropical Atlantic from 11N to 20N between the central Africa coast and Lesser Antilles, including waters near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NNW to NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate. Gentle to moderate S to SW to W winds with 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned tropical wave and attendant winds, seas and weather will shift across the waters to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through Thu. A trough will continue to move west-northwest through this weekend, and impact the Bahamas Thu night through Fri night, then portions of the Straits of Florida, southern Florida and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. There is some potential for a tropical depression to form this weekend across that area. $$ Chan