000 AXNT20 KNHC 010950 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Aug 1 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Winds at the Canary Islands: Meteo-France issued a Gale Warning for their Canarias Marine Zone from 01/15Z to 02/00Z. Please visit website: https://wwww.wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more detail. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 31W from 16N southward, and moving west at 10 kt. No significant convection is evident near this tropical wave. A robust tropical wave is near 68W from east of the Turks and Caicos Islands across the Mona Passage to near the ABC Islands. It is moving west around 15 kt. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring from 15N to 25N between 60W and 70W, including eastern Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development after the wave passes the Greater Antilles, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or far southwestern Atlantic Ocean, including in the vicinity of Florida. Interests across the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this system. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next couple of days, but a medium chance through 7 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Mauritian and Senegal, then curves southwestward through 11N30W to 08N45W. An ITCZ continues northwestward from 08N45W to 10N55W. Scattered moderate convection from 08N to 10N between 47W and 53W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge will remain in place across the Gulf. A few showers and thunderstorms are evident over the western Gulf from 24N to 26N between 92W and 95W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh NE winds near a trough west of the Yucatan Peninsula, and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the basin. For the forecast, the weak ridge will remain in place from the southeastern U.S. across the eastern Gulf waters into Sat allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh winds are expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night during the next couple of days due to local effects. Looking ahead, a tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean will impact portions of the southeast Gulf and Straits of Florida with active weather Sat through Sun, and a tropical depression could form there. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... In addition to the clusters of showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Caribbean associated with the tropical wave, a solid line of showers and thunderstorms is active from central Panama to off Nicaragua related mainly to convergent trade wind flow. A few showers and thunderstorms are also active over a broad area between Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, as well as south of Cuba and off the Yucatan Peninsula, related to upper level divergence near an upper low over the region. Recent buoy and scatterometer satellite data showed fresh winds and seas to 8 ft over the south-central Caribbean, between high pressure north of the area and lower pressure over South America. But the magnitude and areal coverage of this activity has been diminishing as the tropical wave moves into the area and breaks up the dominance of the high pressure. Gentle to moderate wind and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the tropical wave moving westward through the eastern Caribbean will cross the central Caribbean through Fri, and the western Caribbean through Sat night. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase again across mainly the south- central Caribbean by late Sun as high pressure builds in the wake of the tropical wave. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong E to SE winds north of the Mona Passage and east of the Turks and Caicos Islands on the north end of the tropical wave moving through the region. Concurrent altimeter satellite data and buoy observations showed 7 to 9 ft seas in this area. The total expanse of the fresh winds and rough seas is from 20N to 25N between 55W and 70W. Elsewhere, 1027 mb high pressure centered near 35N50W is dominating the subtropical and tropical north Atlantic. Aside from the strong to gale force winds off northwest Africa and the Canary Islands, this pattern is supporting gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas across the region. For the forecast west of 55W, the tropical wave and attendant winds, seas and weather will shift across the waters to the north of Hispaniola through Thu. A trough will continue to move west- northwest across the Bahamas Thu night through Fri night, then continue west- northwest Sat and Sun and impact portions of the Straits of Florida, South Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico. There is some potential for a tropical depression to form this weekend across that area. $$ Christensen