000 AXNT20 KNHC 011658 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Aug 1 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Winds at the Canary Islands: A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Meteo-France marine zone Canarias. Gusty winds to gale force are expected between islands through 02/12Z. Please visit website: https://wwww.wwmiws.wmo.int ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with an axis along 35W from 16N to 4N, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 13N to 7N between 32W and 38W. A robust tropical wave is analyzed with an axis along 70W from 23N to 12W. It is moving west around 15 kt. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the surrounding waters. Development of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward over portions of the Greater Antilles. However, environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development after the wave passes the Greater Antilles, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or near the Florida Peninsula. Interests across the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this system. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours, and a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. Please, see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Mauritania and Senegal then curves southwestward through 13N20W to 08N45W. An ITCZ continues northwestward from 08N45W to 10N54W. Scattered moderate convection from 08N to 10N between 47W and 53W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, no notable convection is associated with either the Monsoon Trough or the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge remains in place across the Gulf. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident across the basin, with a cluster of scattered moderate convection near the Veracruz area. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh NE winds near a trough west of the Yucatan Peninsula, and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the basin. For the forecast, a weak ridge will remain in place over the N Gulf waters into Sat morning allowing for gentle to moderate winds for most of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh NE winds are expected near and to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula at night tonight and Fri night due to local effects. Looking ahead, a tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean will impact portions of the SE Gulf and Straits of Florida with active weather Sat through Sun. A tropical depression could form from this wave during the weekend or early next week over the E Gulf of Mexico. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A well defined tropical wave is over Hispaniola. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for more details. Moisture associated with this wave is forecast to reach eastern Cuba tonight into Fri. A recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh E to SE winds near the wave axis, with highest winds near the convection. In addition to the convection associated with the tropical wave, a band of showers and thunderstorms is active over the northwest Caribbean mainly between the Cayman Islands and the Yucatan Peninsula. Showers and thunderstorms are also active over the southwest Caribbean, affecting portions of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and eastern Panama. Recent buoy and scatterometer satellite data showed fresh winds and seas to 8 ft over the south- central Caribbean, between high pressure north of the area and lower pressure over South America. But the magnitude and areal coverage of this activity has been diminishing as the tropical wave moves into the area and breaks up the dominance of the high pressure. Gentle to moderate wind and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a strong tropical wave moving westward will cross the central Caribbean through Fri and the W Caribbean through Sat night. While the wave will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, it will also break up the dominance of the Atlantic ridge over the basin and allow winds and seas to diminish some across the central and W Caribbean through Sun morning. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase again across the central Caribbean by late Sun as high pressure builds in the wake of the tropical wave. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A well defined tropical wave is over Hispaniola, affecting the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for more details. The Bermuda-Azores High continues to dominate much of the Atlantic forecast waters. The main center is located near 36N50W. An area of scattered moderate convection is noted northeast of the Leeward Islands, covering the waters from 16N to 20N between 58W and 63W. Winds and seas could be higher near these thunderstorms. A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda- Azores high and low pressure over Africa is supporting fresh to strong winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft across the Canary Islands and southward to near 20N. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas persist across much of the waters. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong E to SE winds north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic extending northward to 25N. Concurrent altimeter satellite data and buoy observations showed 7 to 9 ft seas in this area. The total expanse of the fresh to strong winds and rough seas is from Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic north to 25N. For the forecast west of 55W, a well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the adjacent waters of the southwestern N Atlantic. Development of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves west- northwestward over portions of the Greater Antilles. There is a low chance of the system becoming a tropical depression within the next two days over the waters just north of the Greater Antilles including the Bahamas before the wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, the trades will remain moderate or weaker for the next several days. $$ NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER