000 AXNT20 KNHC 020555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Aug 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Robust Tropical Wave: A broad tropical wave is near 73W from the southeast Bahamas southward across Haiti to near the Colombia-Venezuela border. It is moving west-northwest at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near eastern Cuba, Haiti, Puerto Rico and southeast Bahamas, including Turks and Caicos Islands. The wave will move across Cuba on Friday and then emerge over the Straits of Florida Friday night or Saturday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development after that time, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the Straits of Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours, and a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. Please, see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gale Winds at the Canary Islands: A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Meteo-France marine zone Canarias. Gusty winds to gale force are expected between islands through 02/12Z. Please visit website: https://wwww.wwmiws.wmo.int for more detail. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 37W from 17N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring west of the wave from 07N TO 11N between 38W and 44W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott, then curves southwestward through 12N35W to 09N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the trough from 06N to 11N between the Guinea-Sierra Leone coast and 17W, and near the trough from 11N to 12N between 32W and 34W. There is no ITCZ present based on the latest analysis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the coast of southwestern Florida. A surface ridge runs southwestward from a 1019 mb high just west of New Orleans to near Veracruz, Mexico. Mainly moderate ENE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are found at the southern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas exist at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to support gentle to moderate winds for most of the Gulf. Fresh NE winds are expected near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Fri night due to local effects. Looking ahead, a vigorous tropical wave, Invest AL97, moving across the central Caribbean will impact portions of the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida with active weather Sat through Sun. A tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the Straits of Florida or eastern Gulf near the Florida Peninsula. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section at the beginning for more information on a robust tropical wave near Hispaniola. A surface trough is producing widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the Gulf of Honduras and near the Nicaragua coast. Otherwise, a trade-wind regime continues across much of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh with locally strong easterly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are present at the south-central basin. Light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas in NE swell exist near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the aforementioned tropical wave and related wet weather will move across the central and western basin tonight through Sat night. It will break up the dominance of the Atlantic ridge over the basin and allow winds and seas to diminish more across the central and western basin through Sun morning. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase again across the central basin from Sun through at least Tue as high pressure builds in the wake of the tropical wave. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section at the beginning for more information on a robust tropical wave near the southeast Bahamas. For additional convection in the Atlantic, read the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections. A large 1027 mb North Atlantic High is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft north of 20N between 30W and the Florida-Georgia coast, except fresh to strong E to ESE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas near the central and southeast Bahamas, including the Turks and Caicos Islands. Farther east, fresh to strong with locally near-gale to gale NNE to NE winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft exist north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and 30W, including waters near the Canary Islands. To the south near the Cabo Verde Islands from 11N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 30W, moderate to fresh NW to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted. Gentle to moderate southerly and monsoonal westerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, outside the influence of the aforementioned tropical wave, winds will remain generally moderate or weaker for the next several days except west of 70W where fresh southerly winds will persist from Fri night through late Mon. $$ Chan