000 AXNT20 KNHC 021026 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Aug 02 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Wave: A broad tropical wave has its axis extending from near 24N76W to the Windward Passage and into the central Caribbean Sea near 13N74W. It is moving west-northwestward near 15 kt. Satellite imagery shows numerous showers and thunderstorms south of 25N between 64W and 76W, including eastern Cuba, the Windward Passage, the western part of Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas and to Puerto Rico and vicinity. The wave is expected to move near or over Cuba throughout the day and then emerge over the Straits of Florida tonight or Saturday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development after that time, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the Straits of Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of Florida later today. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours, and a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. Please, see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gale Winds at the Canary Islands: A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Meteo-France marine zone Canarias. Gusty winds to gale force are expected between islands through 02/12Z. Please visit website: https://wwww.wwmiws.wmo.int for more detail. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 37W from 04N to 18N, moving westward near 10 kt. Limited convection is noted with this wave as it is surrounded by a dry and stable environment that consists of Saharan Air Layer dust. Only small isolated showers are seen from 04N to 12N between the wave and 40W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott, then curves southwestward through 12N36W to 09N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 40W and 45W, and within 60 nm of the trough between 45W and 49W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the coast of southwestern Florida. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure across the basin is allowing for mostly moderate northeast to east winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft over the southern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are over the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to support gentle to moderate winds for most of the Gulf. Fresh NE winds are expected near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight due to local effects. Looking ahead, a well-defined tropical wave, Invest-AL97, moving across the central Caribbean will impact portions of the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida with active weather Sat through Sun. A tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the Straits of Florida or the eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section at the beginning for more information on a rather robust tropical wave over the central Caribbean. A surface trough is analyzed from near the western tip of Cuba south-southeastward to near 17N84W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm are near the northern part of the trough while isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere near the trough. Otherwise, a typical trade-wind regime continues across much of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh with locally strong easterly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are present at the south-central basin. Light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas in NE swell exist near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the aforementioned tropical wave and related wet weather will move across the central and western basin through Sat night. It will break up the dominance of the Atlantic ridge over the basin and allow winds and seas to diminish more across the central and western basin through Sun morning. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase again across the central basin from Sun through at least Tue as high pressure builds in the wake of the tropical wave. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section for information on a rather robust tropical wave that has its axis extending from the central Caribbean Sea northward along 76W to near 24N. The gradient related to an expansive area of high pressure that is anchored by a 1025 mb high center north of the area near 35N48W supports moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft north of 20N between 30W and the Florida- Georgia coast, except fresh to strong E to ESE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas near the central and southeastern Bahamas, including the Turks and Caicos Islands. Farther east, fresh to strong with locally near- gale to gale NNE to NE winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft exist north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and 30W, including waters near the Canary Islands. To the south near the Cabo Verde Islands from 11N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 30W, moderate to fresh NW to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted. Gentle to moderate southerly and monsoonal westerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, outside the influence of the aforementioned tropical wave, winds will remain generally moderate or weaker for the next several days except west of 70W where fresh southerly winds will persist from Fri night through late Mon. $$ Aguirre