354 AXNT20 KNHC 021735 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Aug 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is centered near 21.1N 77.5W at 02/1800 UTC or 30 nm SE of Camaguey Cuba, moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 18N to 24N between 73W and 80W, including eastern Cuba, Jamaica, and the Bahamas. Peak seas are to 8 ft. A turn toward the northwest at a slower forward speed is expected tonight or Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north on Sunday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move over Cuba today, cross the Straits of Florida on Saturday, and then move near or over the west coast of Florida Saturday night through Sunday night. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression on Saturday as it moves across the Straits of Florida, followed by intensification into a tropical storm by Saturday night. The formation chance through 48 hours and five days is HIGH. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Four NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Meteo-France Canarias marine zone. Winds to Force 8 are expected mainly between the islands through 03/12Z. Please visit website: wwww.wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 42W from 04N to 16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted with this wave from 07N to 13N between 40W and 48W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W from 25N southward, across Cuba and Jamaica. This tropical wave is associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four; please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the northern Mauritania coast near 20N16W, curving southwestward through 12N26W to 09N52W. Convection described in the TROPICAL WAVES section above. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the southeastern Louisiana coast eastward to the Florida Panhandle near Panama City. A diurnal surface trough is also aiding in the development of scattered moderate convection over the western Bay of Campeche. Another surface trough is analyzed near 84W from 25N to 29N, with shower and thunderstorms in the vicinity. Otherwise, high pressure generally prevails across the Gulf, providing light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft across much of the basin. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move inland to 21.7N 78.3W this evening, 23.3N 80.7W Sat morning, 25.1N 82.3W Sat evening, 27.2N 83.0W Sun morning, inland to 29.2N 82.7W Sun evening, and inland to 30.7N 81.7W Mon morning. Four will change little in intensity as it moves to near 32.0N 80.0W early Tue. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move over Cuba today, cross the Straits of Florida on Saturday, and then move near or over the west coast of Florida Saturday night through Sunday night. In the meantime, a weak ridge will remain in place over the N Gulf waters into Sat morning allowing for gentle to moderate winds for most of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh NE winds are expected near and to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR. A surface trough is analyzed from the Yucatan Channel southeastward to about 18N83W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm are in the vicinity of the trough, from 18N to 21N between 80W and 86W. An area of scattered showers is also noted over much of the Leeward Islands. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades prevail across much of the Caribbean Sea with seas of 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move inland to 21.7N 78.3W this evening, 23.3N 80.7W Sat morning, 25.1N 82.3W Sat evening, 27.2N 83.0W Sun morning, inland to 29.2N 82.7W Sun evening, and inland to 30.7N 81.7W Mon morning. Four will change little in intensity as it moves to near 32.0N 80.0W early Tue. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move over Cuba today, cross the Straits of Florida on Saturday, and then move near or over the west coast of Florida Saturday night through Sunday night. It will break up the dominance of the Atlantic ridge over the basin and allow winds and seas to diminish some across the south- central Caribbean through Sun morning. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase again across the central Caribbean from Sun through at least Tue as high pressure builds again N of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR and an EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING. The pressure gradient associated with the 1026 mb Bermuda High is supporting fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft near the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. In the eastern Atlantic, fresh NE winds were detected by satellite scatterometer north of 20N and east of 30W, with seas of 8-10 ft. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of gentle to moderate trades with 4-7 ft seas in open waters. For the forecast west of 55W, Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move inland to 21.7N 78.3W this evening, 23.3N 80.7W Sat morning, 25.1N 82.3W Sat evening, 27.2N 83.0W Sun morning, inland to 29.2N 82.7W Sun evening, and inland to 30.7N 81.7W Mon morning. Four will change little in intensity as it moves to near 32.0N 80.0W early Tue. Tropical storm conditions could be possible across the waters off NE Florida Sun night into Mon. Elsewhere, winds will remain generally moderate or weaker for the next several days except over the waters E of Florida where fresh to strong southerly winds are expected beginning on Sat. $$ Adams/ADM