000 AXNT20 KNHC 030024 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Aug 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Updated for 03/0000 UTC Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Advisory Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is centered near 21.4N 78.9W at 02/0000 UTC or 60 nm W of Camaguey Cuba, moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is noted from 18N to 25N between 77W and 85W, including across much of Cuba. Peak seas are only near 4 to 5 ft because of being extremely fetch limited. A turn toward the northwest at a slower forward speed is expected tonight or Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north on Sunday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move over Cuba tonight, cross the Straits of Florida into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and then move near or over the west coast of Florida Saturday night through Sunday night. The formation chance through 48 hours and five days is HIGH. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Four NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Meteo-France Canarias marine zone. Winds to Force 8 are expected mainly between the islands through 03/12Z. Please visit website: wwww.wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W from 05N to 17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted with this wave from 10N to 14N between 42W and 47W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W from 26N southward, across Cuba and Jamaica. This tropical wave is associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four; please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the northern Mauritania coast near 20N16W, curving southwestward through 12N28W to 08N49W. Convection described in the TROPICAL WAVES section above. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR. Scattered moderate convection is occurring across eastern portions of the Gulf of Mexico, aided by a surface trough along 84W. Otherwise, high pressure generally prevails across the Gulf, providing light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft across much of the basin. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move to 22.4N 80.1W Sat morning, 24.2N 82.2W Sat afternoon, 26.1N 83.3W Sun morning, 28.1N 83.3W Sun afternoon, inland to 29.7N 82.9W Mon morning, and inland to 30.9N 81.9W Mon afternoon. Four will change little in intensity as it moves to the 32.6N 80.0W Tue afternoon. Elsewhere, a weak ridge will remain in place over the N Gulf waters into Sat morning allowing for gentle to moderate winds for most of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh NE winds are expected near and to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is occurring across the coastal waters off of Cuba and Jamaica. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades prevail across much of the Caribbean Sea with seas of 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move inland to 21.7N 78.3W this evening and continue northward away from the Caribbean Sea. Moderate winds will continue tonight across southern portions of the Caribbean before increasing to fresh Sun into early next week. Seas of 2 to 4 feet will prevail this weekend before increasing early next week as high pressure rebuilds N of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR and an EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING. The pressure gradient associated with the 1025 mb Bermuda High is supporting fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft near the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of gentle to moderate trades with 3 to 6 ft seas in open waters. For the forecast west of 55W, Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move to 22.4N 80.1W Sat morning, 24.2N 82.2W Sat afternoon, 26.1N 83.3W Sun morning, 28.1N 83.3W Sun afternoon, inland to 29.7N 82.9W Mon morning, and inland to 30.9N 81.9W Mon afternoon. Four will change little in intensity as it moves to the 32.6N 80.0W Tue afternoon. Tropical storm conditions could be possible across the waters off NE Florida Sun night into Mon. Elsewhere, winds will remain generally moderate or weaker for the next several days except over the waters E of Florida where fresh to strong southerly winds are expected beginning on Sat. $$ Adams/Rubio/JLewitsky