000 AXNT20 KNHC 030600 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Aug 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly formed Tropical Depression (TD) Four is centered near 21.4N 79.7W at 03/0300 UTC or 65 nm S of Caibarien, Cuba and moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas of 4 to 6 ft are found north of the center at the Great Bahama Bank and near the central Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are noted away from the center near the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, and across the Florida Straits and Great Bahama Bank. TD Four is expected to turn toward the northwest on Sat, then toward the north and northeast with a decrease in forward speed Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, TD Four will move across eastern Cuba overnight and early Saturday morning, emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Saturday, and approach the Florida Big Bend area through Sunday night. Please read the latest Offshore Waters and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php and - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. For the latest TD Four NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Meteo-France Canarias marine zone through 03/12Z. Please visit website: wwww.wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 17N southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 37W and 51W. The Caribbean tropical wave previously near 78W was absorbed into the newly formed Tropical Depression Four. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott, then curves southwestward through 11N30W to 09N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring south of the trough from 07N to 09N between Guinea- Sierra Leone coast and 31W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on newly formed Tropical Depression (TD) FOUR. A modest surface trough is causing isolated thunderstorms off the west coast of central Florida. Refer to the Special Features section for additional weather in the Gulf. A surface ridge extends southward from a 1018 mb high at the northwestern Gulf to near Veracruz, Mexico. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present across the southern Gulf, including the Florida Straits and Bay of Campeche. Mostly gentle E to SSE winds with 1 to 3 ft seas dominate the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, TD Four will enter the Strait of Florida Sat morning, then strengthen to a tropical storm near 24.6N 83.3W Sat evening with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. It is expected to gradually strengthen while moving to near 26.6N 84.1W Sun morning, then near 28.4N 84.0W Sun evening with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. It is forecast to reach the Florida Big Bend area Mon morning and then cut across the southeast U.S. through midweek. Otherwise, a weak ridge will remain in place over the northern Gulf into Sat morning allowing for gentle to moderate winds for most of the Gulf. Fresh NE winds are expected near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight due to local effects. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on newly formed Tropical Depression (TD) FOUR. Convergent trade winds are producing isolated thunderstorms at the Gulf of Honduras and eastern basin. Refer to the Special Features section for additional weather in the basin. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft are noted at the central and eastern basin. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are evident near Costa Rica and Panama, and at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, TD Four will track across eastern Cuba overnight through early Sat morning, and then move generally northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Sat through Sun. It is expected to become a tropical storm over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Sat, and continue strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the rest of the weekend. Atlantic high pressure will weaken early next week allowing for trade winds to diminish further across the central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Convergent southeasterly winds are generating isolated thunderstorms near the northwest Bahamas and offshore from central Florida. Refer to the Special Features, Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A large 1028 mb high at he north-central Atlantic continues to support gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft north of 20N between 35W and 65W. To the west, moderate to fresh with locally strong SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist north of 20N between 65W and the Florida-Georgia coast, including the Bahamas. Near the Canary Islands, fresh to strong with locally near-gale NNE to NE winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are dominating north of 19N between the northwest Africa coast and 35W. For waters near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NNE to NW winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted from 10N to 19N between the central Africa coast and 30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft exist. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh southerly and monsoonal westerly winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, newly formed Tropical Depression Four is forecast to become a tropical storm and track northeastward near the southeastern U.S coast into early next week. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the waters off northeastern Florida Mon through Wed. Elsewhere, winds will remain generally moderate or weaker for the next several days except over the waters east of Florida where fresh to strong southerly winds are expected beginning on Sat. $$ Chan