000 AXNT20 KNHC 031045 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Aug 03 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Four is centered near 10.7N 114.8W at 06/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas peaking to around 6 or 7 ft are from Andros Island to near 80W, and higher seas to 8 to 9 ft are over the middle Straits of Florida. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are over the waters from the central Bahamas to along the north coast of Cuba while scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the Caribbean waters between Cuba and 17N and between 80W and 85W as well as just south of Jamaica. Additional shower and thunderstorm activity is well to the northwest of the depression over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. See below Gulf of Mexico section for details. Tropical Depression Four is forecast to turn toward the northwest is forecast today, followed by a northward motion on Sun and then a slower northeastward motion Sun night and Mon. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move across western Cuba this morning, and then move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday, reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sun or Mon. Strengthening of the depression s forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today, and continue strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. Please read the latest Offshore Waters and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php and - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. For the latest TD Four NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Meteo-France Canarias marine zone through 03/12Z. Please visit website: wwww.wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been introduced to the 06Z surface map. It has its axis near 23W from 09N to 24N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Deep convection is to its south as described below under Monsoon Trough/ITCZ. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 46W from 17N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. A rather large area of numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from noted from 09N to 14N between the wave and 51W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott, then curves southwestward through 11N30W and to 09N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring south of the trough from 07N to 09N between Guinea- Sierra Leone coast and 31W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Depression FOUR. A trough is analyzed from 28N87W to 23N89W. Only isolated showers are possible near it. Another trough is along the coast of Mexico from just southeast of Tampico to inland Mexico near 18N94W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near it and also south of 23N between 89W and 95W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms well to the northwest of Tropical Depression Four are moving to the northwest and north are over the southeastern Gulf south of 25N and between 82W and 85W. This activity may be accompanied by gusty winds. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure is present over the basin as a 1017 mb high center is analyzed over the NW Gulf at 27N95W. The associated gradient is allowing for generally gentle to moderate northeast to east winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present across the southern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida and Bay of Campeche. Mostly gentle E to SSE winds with 1 to 3 ft seas dominate the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Four will move across western Cuba this morning, and then move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sun, reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sun or Mon. It is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm over the southeastern Gulf late tonight near 25.3N 83.9W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt, then gradually strengthen as it moves to near 27.5N 84.3W Sun afternoon, to near 29.1N 83.9W late Sun night with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 70 kt and inland near 30.4N 83.1W Mon afternoon, and to well northeast of the region through midweek. Otherwise, a weak ridge will remain in place over the northern Gulf through early next week allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Depression FOUR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are in the vicinity of the Gulf of Honduras and over the eastern part of the basin. Refer to the Special Features section for additional weather in the basin. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft are over central and eastern sections of the sea. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are evident near Costa Rica and Panama, and at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Four will move across Cuba this morning, and then move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sun, reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sun or Mon. It is expected to become a a tropical storm over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late today, and continue strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the rest of the weekend. Atlantic high pressure will weaken early next week allowing for trade winds to diminish some across the central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Convergent southeasterly winds are generating isolated thunderstorms near the northwest Bahamas and offshore from central Florida. Refer to the Special Features, Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. An expansive area of high pressure stretches across the central and western Atlantic, with a ridge axis that roughly extends from a 1023 mb high center that is at 31N63W westward to NE Florida. The related gradient supports gentle to moderate east to southeast winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft north of 20N between 35W and 65W. To the west, moderate to fresh with locally strong southeast winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist north of 20N between 65W and the Florida-Georgia coast, including the Bahamas. Near the Canary Islands, fresh to strong with locally near-gale northeast to east winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are dominating north of 19N between the northwest Africa coast and 35W. For waters near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NNE to NW winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted from 10N to 19N between the central Africa coast and 30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft exist. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh southerly and monsoonal westerly winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Depression Four will move across Cuba this morning, and then move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sun, reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sun or Mon. It is expected to become a a tropical storm over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late today, and continue strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the rest of the weekend. It is forecast to track slowly north-northeastward near the southeastern U.S coast into early next week. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the waters off NE Florida Sun night through Wed. Elsewhere, winds will remain generally moderate or weaker for the next several days except over the waters E of Florida where fresh to strong southerly winds are expected beginning on Sat. $$ Aguirre