000 AXNT20 KNHC 031744 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Aug 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Four is centered near 23.1N 82.6W at 03/1800 UTC or 10 nm WNW of Havana Cuba, moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are building to 8-11 ft in the Straits of Florida. Scattered moderate convection is from 20N to 26N between 80W and 85W, including across eastern Cuba, the Florida Keys, and South Florida. A turn toward the northwest is forecast today, followed by a northward motion on Sunday and then a slower northeastward motion Sunday night and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move across western Cuba this morning, and then move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday, reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sunday or Monday. Slow strengthening is expected today and tonight, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. A faster rate of strengthening is expected Sunday through Monday, and the system could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the Florida Gulf coast. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tropical Depression Four NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: The Gale Warning for the Meteo- France Canarias marine zone remains in effect until 04/0000Z. NE winds to Force 8 will continue between the Canary Islands. Please visit website: wwww.wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is nearly stationary along 21W from 22N southward. Convection is described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W, from 18N southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 13N between 47W to 60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N17W, and continues to 12N42W then to 08N53W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 10N west of 22W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Depression FOUR. Elsewhere, outside of the influence of TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR, 1016 mb high pressure is in the western Gulf, providing light winds and slight seas. Scattered showers and tstorms are in the NE Gulf. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Four will move to 24.3N 83.4W this evening, strengthen to a tropical storm near 26.3N 84.3W Sun morning, 28.2N 84.3W Sun evening, 29.8N 83.8W Mon morning, inland to 30.7N 83.1W Mon evening, and inland to 31.4N 82.0W Tue morning. Four will change little in intensity as it moves N of area 31.5N 80.5W early Wed. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday, reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sunday or Monday. Otherwise, a weak ridge will remain in place over the Gulf waters through early next week allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Depression FOUR. Outside of the influence of Tropical Depression Four, satellite scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean Sea, with 3-6 ft seas. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Four will move to 24.3N 83.4W this evening, strengthen to a tropical storm near 26.3N 84.3W Sun morning, 28.2N 84.3W Sun evening, 29.8N 83.8W Mon morning, inland to 30.7N 83.1W Mon evening, and inland to 31.4N 82.0W Tue morning. Four will change little in intensity as it moves N of area near 31.5N 80.5W early Wed. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move across western Cuba this morning, and then move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday. Atlantic high pressure will weaken early next week allowing for trade winds to diminish some across the central Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Depression FOUR. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above. The Bermuda-Azores High dominates the basin, providing gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas across the tropical Atlantic. Winds pulse to locally fresh near the tropical waves mentioned above. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Depression Four will move to 24.3N 83.4W this evening, strengthen to a tropical storm near 26.3N 84.3W Sun morning, 28.2N 84.3W Sun evening, 29.8N 83.8W Mon morning, inland to 30.7N 83.1W Mon evening, and inland to 31.4N 82.0W Tue morning. Four will change little in intensity as it moves N of area near 31.5N 80.5W early Wed. Strong southerly winds and rough seas are expected across the waters off NE Florida Sun night through Wed, with tropical storm conditions possible on Wed. Elsewhere, winds will remain generally moderate or weaker for the next several days. $$ Mahoney