219 AXNT20 KNHC 040035 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Aug 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Updated for 0000 UTC advisory on Tropical Storm Debby Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Debby is centered near 24.1N 83.3W at 03/0000 UTC or 90 nm WSW of Key West Florida, moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas are building to 8-12 ft if not higher in the Straits of Florida. Bands of scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection extend from the coastal waters of Tampa Bay southward to 19.5N in the northwestern Caribbean, between 79W and 85W, including across eastern Cuba, the Florida Keys, and South Florida. A turn toward the northwest is expected later tonight, followed by a northward motion across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and then a slower northeastward motion Sunday night and Monday inland across northern Florida. On the forecast track, the center of Debby will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico later tonight and Sunday, reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sunday or Monday. Slow strengthening is expected tonight and Sunday, and Debby could reach hurricane strength when it reaches the Florida Gulf coast Sunday afternoon or evening. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tropical Depression Four NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: The Gale Warning for the Meteo- France Canarias marine zone is forecast to expire at 04/0000Z. NE winds to Force 8 will continue between the Canary Islands. Please visit website: wwww.wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is nearly stationary along 22W from 21N southward. Convection is described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W, from 18N southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07.5N to 12.5N between 45W to 55W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12.5N17W, and continues to 09N24W to 12.5N42W then to 08.5N53W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 05.5N to 09.5N between 27W and 34W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Debby. Scattered to numerous convection dominates the extreme SE Gulf this evening, and extends northward to the waters offshore of Tampa Bay. Elsewhere, outside of the influence of Tropical Storm Debby, moderate or less cyclonic winds dominate the basin. A 1016 mb high pressure is in the western Gulf, near the Mexico/Texas border, providing light winds and slight seas W of 87W. Scattered showers and tstorms are moving into the Louisiana coastal waters, ahead of a stationary front across central portions of the state. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Debby will dominate the marine conditions across the eastern Gulf through Mon. Debby is expected to gradually strengthen, reaching near 25.3N 84.1W tonight, near 27.2N 84.6W Sun afternoon, near 28.9N 84.4W Sun night, inland to 30.7N 83.1W Mon evening, and inland near hurricane strength near 30.2N 83.8W Mon afternoon. Otherwise, a weak ridge will remain in place over the Gulf waters through early next week allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Debby. Bands of scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection associated with Debby continue across the northwest Caribbean, the Yucatan Channel, and western Cuba. Strong S to SW winds to 30 kt continue across the western Cuba coastal waters where seas are still 6 to 8 ft. Outside of the influence of Tropical Storm Debby, earlier satellite scatterometer data indicated gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean Sea, with 3-6 ft seas. Fresh to locally strong winds are occurring within 60 nm of the coast between NW Venezuela and NE Colombia. For the forecast, Debby will begin to move N-NW this evening and tonight and gradually exit Cuba and the Straits of Florida by late Sun morning. Gradually strengthening is expected overnight through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Debby will reach near 27.2N 84.6W Sun afternoon, 28.9N 84.4W Mon morning, and strengthen to a hurricane as it moves inland near 30.2N 83.8W Mon afternoon. Atlantic high pressure will weaken early next week allowing for trade winds to diminish some across the central Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Debby. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above. The Bermuda-Azores High dominates the basin, extending from the Azores W-SW to north Florida, and is providing gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas across the tropical Atlantic. Winds are pulsing to locally fresh near the tropical waves mentioned above. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Debby will begin to move N-NW this evening and tonight, and slowly strengthen across the SE Gulf of Mexico, then turn northward by Sunday afternoon and move across the eastern central Gulf of Mexico, offshore of Florida, and then gradually veer NNE and move inland near hurricane strength near 30.2N 83.8W Mon afternoon. Strong southerly winds and rough seas are expected across the waters off NE Florida Mon through Thu, with tropical storm conditions possible on Wed, as Debby crosses north Florida and Georgia and moves near the Atlantic coast. Elsewhere, winds will remain generally moderate or weaker for the next several days. $$ Stripling/Lewitsky