000 AXNT20 KNHC 040605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Aug 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Debby is centered near 24.4N 83.6W at 04/0300 UTC or 45 nm WSW of Dry Tortugas, Florida and moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Seas are peaking at 11 to 14 ft near the center. Scattered to numerous heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring from the Florida Straits northward across the Florida Keys to near Tampa. A turn toward the north is expected on Sunday, followed by a slower motion the northeast Monday and Tuesday. This will bring Debby across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, reaching the Florida Big Bend area Monday morning before moving across northern Florida and southern Georgia Monday afternoon and Tuesday. Additional strengthening is forecast and Debby could become a hurricane by Sunday night. Please read the latest Offshore Waters and High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. For the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on Debby, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An broad eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near the Cabo Verde Islands at 24W from 21N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Engulfed by a thick layer of Sahara Dust, no significant convection is present. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 18N southward through a 1012 mb low near 10N51W, and moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 11N to 13N between 50W to 54W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of West Sahara and Mauritania, extends southwestward to 11N30W then turns westward to 09N53W. Scattered to numerous moderate with isolated strong convection is found south of the trough from 07N to 09N between 30W and 36W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 18N between the central Africa coast and 20W, and from 12N to 14N between 42W and 46W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm (TS) Debby. A pre-frontal trough is causing isolated strong thunderstorms at the north-central Gulf, including waters near New Orleans. A surface ridge runs southward from a 1015 mb high at the northwestern Gulf to near Veracruz, Mexico. Outside the direct influence from TS Debby, fresh to strong E to SSE winds and seas at 7 to 11 ft dominate the east-central and southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas exist at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, TS Debby will move to near 25.9N 84.2W Sun morning with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. It will track to near 27.8N 84.3W Sun evening, then strengthen to a hurricane near 29.3N 84.0W Mon morning with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. Debby is forecast to move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 30.3N 83.3W Mon evening. The center of Debby is forecast to pull farther away from the region and move slowly north along the U.S. southeastern coast. Otherwise, the surface ridge will remain in place through early next week allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds over most of the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Converging southerly winds feeding toward Tropical Storm Debby at the southeastern Gulf of Mexico are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near western and central Cuba, including waters around the Cayman Islands. Convergent trade winds are generating isolated thunderstorms at the Gulf of Honduras and eastern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are present across the central and eastern basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft exist near Costa Rica and Panama. Fresh with locally strong southerly winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident south of western Cuba, including the Island of the Youth. Gentle to moderate ENE to SSE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, aforementioned scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near western Cuba will gradually lift north of the basin through Sun night. Otherwise, Atlantic high pressure will weaken early next week allowing for trade winds to diminish more across the central basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm (TS) Debby. Convergent southeasterly winds along with abundant tropical moisture are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the offshore waters along eastern Florida coast and near the northwest and central Bahamas. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. The Bermuda-Azores High continues to support gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft north of 20N between 30W and 70W. To the west, moderate to fresh SE to S winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted north of 20N between 70W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are seen north of 22N between the northwest Africa coast and 30W. For the waters near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate monsoonal winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate NE swell exist from 10N to 22N between the central Africa coast and 35W. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 7 ft are evident. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh southerly winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in mixed large swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, TS Debby is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Mon morning. Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia Mon through Tue. Weakening is expected Mon through Tue after Debby moves inland. Strong southerly winds and rough seas are expected across the waters off northeastern Florida Mon through Thu, with tropical storm conditions possible from Mon night through Wed night. Elsewhere, winds will remain generally moderate or weaker for the next several days. $$ Chan