000 AXNT20 KNHC 041046 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Aug 04 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Debby is centered near 25.5N 84.0W at 04/0900 UTC or 170 nm SSW of Tampa Florida, moving NNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Satellite imagery shows deep convection increasing over and around the center of Debby. This convection consists of numerous strong intensity from 22N to 28N between 82W and 84W. Scattered moderate to strong convection in an outer rainband is from 22N to 23N between 81W and 83W. Recent trends of this convection is that of increasing as observed in the satellite imagery. Seas are in the range of 10 to 16 ft in the NE quadrant. Debby is expected to turn toward the north later today, followed by a slower motion toward the northeast Mon through Tue. On the forecast track, the center will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Mon morning. Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia Mon through Tue. Debby is expected to become a hurricane by tonight before it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast. Weakening is expected on Mon through Tue after Debby moves inland. Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of northern Florida through Friday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through Mon. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest Offshore Waters and High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. For the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on Debby, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A rather broad eastern Atlantic tropical has its axis near 26W from 05N to 21N. It is near the Cabo Verde Islands, and is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is surrounded by Saharan Air Layer. Only a few showers are near the southern part of the wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 53W from 05N to 19N. A 1011 mb low is along the wave axis near 10N53W. The wave is moving westward around 15 kt. Increasing numerous moderate convection is from 11N to 14N between 51W and 55W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 09N to 11W between 51W to 54W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of West Sahara and Mauritania, and extends southwestward to 12N31W then turns west-northwestward to 12N452 to 11N50W and to the 1011 mb low that is along a tropical wave. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N to 10N between 30W and 35W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 35W and 45W. Similar convection is seen from 12N to 18N between the central Africa coast and 21W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Debby. A pre-frontal trough is helping to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms at the north-central Gulf, including waters near New Orleans. A surface ridge stretches southward from a 1015 mb high center over NW Gulf to near Veracruz, Mexico. Outside impacts from Debby, fresh to strong south to southwest winds are south of 26N and east of 87W with seas of 7 to 10 ft dominate the east- central and southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Moderate to locally fresh southeast winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are over the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Debby near 25.5N 84.0W at 5 AM EDT, will track to near 27.2N 84.4W this afternoon with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt, and strengthen to a hurricane near 28.9N 84.4W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. Debby is forecast to move inland near 30.2N 83.8W Mon afternoon and weaken to a tropical storm over southern Georgia late Mon night. Debby is forecast to pull farther away from the region and move slowly N along the U.S. southeastern coast through late in the week. Otherwise, weak high pressure over the region will allow for generally gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the northwestern part of the sea, mainly south of western Cuba to 20N and west of about 79W. Moderate to fresh northeast to east trade winds along with seas of 4 to 6 ft seas are present across the central and eastern basin. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are over the far southwestern part of the sea. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are over the northwestern Caribbean Sea north of 20N between 80W and 85W. Gentle to moderate mostly trade winds are elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, aforementioned scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near western Cuba will gradually lift north of the basin through tonight. Otherwise, Atlantic high pressure will weaken early next week allowing for trade winds to diminish some more across the central basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Debby. The gradient related to the typical Bermuda High for this time of year continues to support gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft north of 20N between 30W and 70W. To the west, moderate to fresh southeast to south winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted north of 20N between 70W and the Florida- Georgia coast. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong north to northeast winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are seen north of 22N between the northwest Africa coast and 30W. For the waters near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate monsoonal winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate northeast swell exist from 10N to 22N between the central Africa coast and 35W. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 7 ft are evident. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh southerly winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in mixed large swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Debby is southwest of the area over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, roughly about 170 nm south- southwest of Tampa, Florida. Debby is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by tonight before it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast. Weakening is expected on Mon and Tue after Debby moves inland. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas are expected over most of the western waters the waters through Mon, with these conditions becoming strong to near gale afterward as they shift eastward across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas through the rest of the forecast period. Tropical storm conditions are possible east of northern Florida tonight through Tue. Elsewhere, winds will remain generally moderate or weaker through late in the week. $$ Aguirre