000 AXNT20 KNHC 041742 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Aug 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Debby is centered near 27.3N 84.4W at 04/1800 UTC or 110 nm WSW of Tampa Florida, moving NNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong is across the entire eastern Gulf of Mexico west of 85W, including inland over the Florida Peninsula and western Cuba. Peak seas are to 18 ft, with seas in excess of 8 ft across the eastern Gulf. A turn toward the north is expected later today, followed by a slower motion toward the northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning. Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Debby is expected to become a hurricane by tonight before it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland. Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of northern Florida through Friday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Friday morning. This potentially historic rainfall may result in areas of catastrophic flooding. For western Cuba, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through today. This will result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through Monday. Swells will begin to affect the Southeast U.S. coast on Monday and continue through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Debby NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical has its axis near 30W from 05N to 21N, moving west at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is near the tropical wave at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W from 05N to 17N. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 55W and 63W, including across the Windward Islands. Recent satellite scatterometer data indicates 25-30 kt east winds in the vicinity of the tropical wave axis, building seas to locally 8 ft. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 16N16W across the basin to 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the monsoon trough. No ITCZ is analyzed. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Debby. Elsewhere, light winds and slight seas prevail under the influence of weak high pressure ridging. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Debby will strengthen to a hurricane near 28.3N 84.5W this evening, move to 29.9N 84.1W Mon morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 30.9N 83.4W Mon evening, inland to 31.6N 82.5W Tue morning, inland to 31.9N 81.5W Tue evening, and 32.2N 80.5W Wed morning. Debby will be N of area near 33.5N 79.5W early Thu. On the forecast track, the center of Debby will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning. Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday. Debby is expected to become a hurricane by tonight before it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland. Otherwise, weak high pressure over the region will allow for generally gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the Caribbean, with satellite scatterometer detecting locally fresh pulsing trades in the south central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Seas are 4-6 ft across the basin, building to locally 7 ft in the aforementioned area of fresh trades. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Debby will continue to pull well away from the area today, and is expected to become a hurricane by tonight in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Some slow development of the tropical wave along 55W is possible during the week as it moves quickly westward at around 20 mph, crossing the Windward Islands on Mon, and moving into the central and western Caribbean by the mid to latter part of this week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Debby. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for information on a TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W, that is producing 25-30 kt winds and seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, the Bermuda High dominates the tropical Atlantic, providing gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Debby is expected to become a hurricane by tonight before it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas are expected over most of the western waters, mainly W of 77W through tonight, with tropical storm conditions possible east of northern Florida Mon through Tue night. Elsewhere, winds will remain generally moderate or weaker through late in the week, except just off Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage where fresh to strong E winds are expected, especially at night. $$ Mahoney