000 AXNT20 KNHC 050011 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Aug 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Updated for 0000 UTC Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Debby is centered near 28.1N 84.1W at 04/0000 UTC or 90 nm W of Tampa Florida, moving N at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are estimated near 24 ft offshore of Tampa Bay, with seas in excess of 8 ft across most of the eastern Gulf E of 88W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection covers most of the eastern Gulf of Mexico east of 86W, from inland over the Florida Big Bend to western Cuba. Bands of numerous strong convection have begun to intensify within 90 nm of the center of Debby. A northward motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a slower motion toward the northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning. Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Debby is expected to become a hurricane tonight before it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland. Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of northern Florida through Friday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Friday morning. This potentially historic rainfall may result in areas of catastrophic flooding. For western Cuba, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through this evening. This will result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through Monday. Swells will begin to affect the Southeast U.S. coast on Monday and continue through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Debby NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical has its axis near 31W from 05N to 21N, moving west at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is near the tropical wave at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 56W from 05N to 17N. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 14N between 53W and 65W, including across the Windward Islands and southeast Caribbean. Recent satellite scatterometer data indicates 25-30 kt east winds in the vicinity of the tropical wave axis, building seas to locally 8 to 9 ft. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 17.5N16W to 09.5N33W to 11.5N49W to 08.5N60W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N E of 27W to the coast of Africa, and elsewhere within 150 nm of the monsoon trough. No ITCZ is analyzed. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Debby. Elsewhere, light winds, slight seas and tranquil weather prevail across the basin W of 88W, under the influence of weak high pressure ridging. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Debby will continue northward across the eastern Gulf tonight and strengthen to a hurricane near 29.1N 84.4W Mon morning, move inland to 30.5N 83.8W Mon afternoon, and weaken to a tropical storm near 31.3N 83.0W Tue morning. On the forecast track, the center of Debby will reach the Florida Big Bend coast around midday Monday. Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland. As Debby moves N of the area, a ridge will build again across the Gulf waters allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gentle to moderate trades prevail across western and north central portions of the Caribbean, with fresh to strong trades in the south central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Seas are 4-6 ft across the basin, building to locally 8 ft along the coast of Colombia. Fresh trades have spread across the Lesser Antilles and into the basin E of 65W, with seas building 6 to 7 ft there. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Debby will continue to pull well away from the area tonight, and is expected to become a hurricane early Mon in the NE Gulf of Mexico. A tropical wave located east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce an area of showers and thunderstorms, with fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of this system during the week as it moves quickly westward at around 15 to 20 kt, crossing the Windward Islands on Mon, and moving into the central and western Caribbean by the mid to latter part of this week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Debby. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for information on a tropical wave along 56W, that is producing 20-30 kt winds and seas to 9 ft. Elsewhere, the Bermuda High dominates the tropical Atlantic, extending a ridge into northern Florida and Georgia. This pattern is providing gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas across the basin N of 21N, with fresh southerly winds offshore of NE Florida. Outside of fresh to strong winds associated with a tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles, the remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under gentle to moderate trade wind flow and seas of 5 to 6 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Debby is expected to become a hurricane early Mon before it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas are expected over most of the western waters, mainly W of 77W, likely through Thu, with tropical storm conditions possible east of northern Florida on Mon. Elsewhere, winds will remain generally moderate or weaker through late in the week, except just off Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, where fresh to strong E winds are expected especially at night. $$ Stripling/Lewitsky