417 AXNT20 KNHC 050602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Aug 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Debby, at 05/0600 UTC, is near 29.1N 83.8W. This position also is about 35 nm/70 km to the west of Cedar Key in Florida; and about 83 nm/150 km to the SSE of Tallahassee in Florida. DEBBY is moving toward the north/010 degrees 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 65 knots with gusts to 80 knots. Hurricane-force winds are: within 40 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Tropical storm-force winds are: within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 120 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 40 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 60 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Sea heights that are 12 feet or higher are within: 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 120 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea height is 24 feet. DEBBY will bring to the SE United States for this week a major flood threat. DEBBY is expected to move through the NE Gulf of Mexico, and reach the Florida Big Bend coast on Monday morning. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere to the north of 29N89W 24N85W 24N78W 31N74W, including for some rainshowers in Cuba, from the Gulf of Mexico to the western parts of the Atlantic Ocean. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml; and the latest Debby NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W from 21N southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 08N to 11N between 24W and 29W, and also to the south of the monsoon trough. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W from 18N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 390 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 420 nm to the west of the tropical wave. Moderate to rough seas, and fresh to strong NE winds, are from 12N to 18N between 50W and 60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 15N17W, to 13N30W 10N41W 09N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 08N to 11N between 24W and 29W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from the monsoon trough southward. GULF OF MEXICO... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Hurricane Debby. The surface pressure pattern for the Gulf of Mexico is weak from 90W westward. All the action is happening mostly in the NE quadrant of the Gulf. Slight seas, and gentle winds, are from 90W westward. Newly-upgraded Hurricane Debby is near 28.6N 84.0W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving north at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Debby will move to 29.8N 83.8W Mon morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 30.8N 83.0W Mon evening, then remain inland at 31.5N 82.1W Tue morning. Tropical Storm Debby will be inland near 31.6N 81.0W Tue evening, 31.7N 80.1W Wed morning, and 32.1N 79.8W Wed evening. Debby will remain inland over South Carolina late Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Debby will move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast around midday Monday. Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday. Additional strengthening likely before it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast on Monday. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland. As Debby moves N of the area, a ridge will build again across the Gulf waters allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Slight seas are within 135 nm of the coast of South America from 70W eastward; and from Jamaica westward. An exception is for slight to moderate seas from 20N northward from 80W westward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds are in much of the Caribbean Sea that is from 75W eastward. An exception is for moderate NE winds that are within 180 nm of the coast of South America from 70W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Newly upgraded Hurricane Debby is N of the area in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, moving northward and further away from the region, with no further impacts for the Caribbean. A tropical wave just E of the Windward Islands is producing strong winds and scattered thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development this week as the wave moves rapidly W across the Islands Mon then into the central and western Caribbean by the mid to late week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Hurricane Debby. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward from 76W eastward. Broad surface anticyclonic moderate to fresh winds cover much of the Atlantic Ocean that is from the monsoon trough northward. Gentle winds are: within 480 nm to the north of the monsoon trough from 25W eastward; within 210 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 25W and 37W; and within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 37W and 50W; within 90 nm to the south of the monsoon trough; and from 30N northward from 67W eastward. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. Moderate to rough seas are from 06N to 15N between 20W and 30W; and from 02N southward between 30W and 40W. Moderate to near-rough seas are from 23N to 29N between 20W and 30W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. An exception is for slight seas from 25N northward between 50W and 70W. Newly-upgraded Hurricane Debby is near 28.6N 84.0W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving north at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Debby will move to 29.8N 83.8W Mon morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 30.8N 83.0W Mon evening, then remain inland at 31.5N 82.1W Tue morning. Tropical Storm Debby will be inland near 31.6N 81.0W Tue evening, 31.7N 80.1W Wed morning, and 32.1N 79.8W Wed evening. Debby will remain inland over South Carolina late Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Debby will move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast around midday Monday. Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday. Additional strengthening likely before it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast on Monday. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas are expected over most of the western waters, mainly W of 77W, likely through Thu, with tropical storm conditions possible east of northern Florida on Mon. Elsewhere, winds will remain generally moderate or weaker through late in the week, except just off Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage where fresh to strong E winds are expected especially at night. $$ mt/sk