816 AXNT20 KNHC 051020 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Aug 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Debby is centered near 29.5N 83.7W at 05/0900 UTC or 40 nm NW of Cedar Key Florida, moving NNE at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Hurricane-force winds extend 20 nm from the center in the E semicircle. Tropical storm-force winds extend 120 nm from the center in the SE quadrant, 40 nm in the SW quadrant, and 60 nm in the N semicircle. Seas of 12 ft or higher are noted within 120 nm SE quadrant, 60 nm NE quadrant, and 90 nm W semicircle, with peak seas near 21 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted in rainbands extending N of 26N and E of 86W. Debby is expected to reach the Florida Big Bend coast later this morning and bring a threat of major flooding to much of the SE U.S. this week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Debby NHC Forecast and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W from 20N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 28W and 33W. A western Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W from 18N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within about 210 nm on either side of the wave axis, including over and near the Windward Islands. In addition, just east of the wave axis, rough seas and strong NE to E winds are ongoing. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of this wave over the next week while it continues moving W across the Caribbean Sea. There is a low chance of tropical formation over the next 7 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 15N17W to 15N35W to 09N50W. Convection is the vicinity of the monsoon trough is primarily associated with the east Atlantic tropical wave described in the above Tropical Waves section. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details about Hurricane Debby, located in the NE Gulf of Mexico. Strong winds and rough seas in association with Debby are noted N of 24N and W of 87W. Elsewhere across the basin, weak high pressure is suppressing any significant convection and is leading to mainly gentle winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Debby will move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 30.5N 83.1W this afternoon, then be inland at 31.3N 82.1W Tue morning. Tropical Storm Debbie will be inland near 31.8N 81.1W Tue afternoon, 31.9N 80.2W Wed morning, and 32.1N 79.6W Wed afternoon. Debbie will move offshore South Carolina into the Atlantic Thu morning. On the forecast track, the center of Debby will reach the Florida Big Bend coast later this morning. Debby is then expected to weaken as it moves slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia into Tuesday. As Debby moves N of the area, a ridge will build again across the Gulf waters allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on a tropical wave currently approaching the Windward Islands that has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation this week. Upper level divergence is aiding in scattered moderate convection offshore Venezuela, and the eastern extension of the East Pacific Monsoon trough is leading to scattered moderate convection along and S of 10N in the far SW Caribbean, including near the coasts of Colombia and Panama. Elsewhere, no significant convection is ongoing. Locally strong winds and rough seas are occurring off the coast of Colombia, otherwise moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate the central and eastern basin, as well as the SW Caribbean to the N of the monsoon trough. Across the NW basin, mainly gentle SE winds and sea of 2 to 4 ft prevail. For the forecast, locally strong winds offshore Colombia and near the Gulf of Venezuela will diminish by tonight as the aforementioned tropical wave approaches. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Debbie that will move inland into the SE U.S. today, then possibly impact waters offshore FL starting tonight. Aside from convection within about 60 nm of the Florida coast in association with Debby, generally dry air is precluding significant convection through most of the basin. Some strong winds are noted near the Florida coast due to Debby, and strong winds just E of the Windward Islands are associated with the tropical wave that is described above. Otherwise, mainly moderate trades dominate the basin, with seas averaging 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the center of Debby will reach the Florida Big Bend coast later this morning. Debby is then expected to weaken as it moves slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia into Tuesday. Strong S winds and rough seas will result over Atlantic waters N of 27N and W of 75W through Thu, with tropical storm conditions offshore the NE Florida coast tonight. Elsewhere, winds will remain generally moderate or weaker through late in the week, except just off Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage where fresh to strong E winds are expected tonight. $$ Konarik