208 AXNT20 KNHC 051651 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Aug 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly downgraded Tropical Storm Debby is centered near 30.2N 83.2W at 05/1500 UTC or 30 nm W of Lake City Florida, moving NNE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Seas are currently peaking near 12 ft which extends 75 nm SW of the center of the storm. Buoys 42098, which is located right off the Tampa Bay coast, and 42099 were reporting seas 9 to 10 ft at 1600 UTC. Rainbands associated with Debby are persisting over the eastern Gulf moving into Tampa Bay southward to Ft. Myers with frequent lightning. The latest scatterometer data shows gale force winds continue off the Florida Big Bend with strong winds stretching from Apalachicola southward to Naples. On the forecast track, Debby is expected to have a gradual decrease in forward speed with a turn toward the east later today and Tuesday. The center will move across southeastern Georgia tonight and Tuesday, and move offshore of the South Carolina coast by late Tuesday and Wednesday. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will begin to affect the Southeast U.S. coast later today and continue through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Debby NHC Forecast and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 34W from 18N southward, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 60W from 19N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 57W and 66W. Scatterometer data depicted strong winds on either side of the wave in the far eastern Caribbean and on the Atlantic side of the Windward Islands. Seas range 8 to 9 ft on the Atlantic side of the Islands. Meanwhile, the convection with this system has become disorganized since yesterday. Any development of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while the system moves westward over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development later this week as the system moves across the western Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico. This system has a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and 7 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Mauritania near 18N16W to 13N33W to 08N44W. The ITCZ extends from 08N44W to 08N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 17W and 27W and from 06N to 08N between 45W and 49W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Debby. Outside of Debby, conditions across the Gulf are quiescent with light to gentle winds and slight seas. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Debby is near 30.2N 83.2W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving north-northeast at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Debby will move inland to 31.0N 82.5W this evening, inland to 31.7N 81.5W Tue morning, 31.9N 80.6W Tue evening, 32.1N 79.7W Wed morning, 32.4N 79.2W Wed evening, and 33.0N 79.0W Thu morning. Debby will move inland near 34.6N 79.1W by early Fri. As Debby continues to move NE of the area, a ridge will build again across the Gulf waters allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on a tropical wave currently approaching the Windward Islands. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted along the eastern Pacific monsoon trough in the southwest Caribbean, S of 12N between 76W and 83W. Scattered thunderstorms are also noted moving across the ABC islands ahead of the tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles. The latest scatterometer data this morning depicted strong winds across the south central Caribbean along with south of Hispaniola. Seas to 8 ft are noted off the coast of Colombia. Seas 4 to 6 ft are noted across the rest of the central and eastern basin. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southeast winds prevail across the NW basin with seas ranging 2 to 3 ft. For the forecast, strong winds offshore Colombia and near the Gulf of Venezuela will diminish by today as the aforementioned wave approaches. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Debbie that will move inland into the SE U.S. today, then possibly impact waters offshore FL starting tonight. In the western Atlantic, an outer rainband associated with Debby extends off the South Florida coast across the northern Bahamas to 31N. The latest scatterometer data from this morning depicted strong winds off the NE Florida coast. Moderate to fresh winds prevail W of 70W. Seas are already up to 9 ft off the NE Florida coast according to Buoy 41112, with Buoy 41010 reporting 8 ft seas. Off the central and southern Florida coast, seas are 4 to 5 ft. Otherwise, the rest of the western Atlantic is experiencing 4 to 6 ft seas. Meanwhile, surface ridging extends across the central and eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure near 34N62W. This is giving way to gentle to moderate winds across the rest of the Atlantic. Light to gentle winds are noted off the Africa coast around the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas range 4 to 7 ft across the rest of the central and eastern Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Debby is near 30.2N 83.2W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving north-northeast at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Debby will move inland to 31.0N 82.5W this evening, inland to 31.7N 81.5W Tue morning, 31.9N 80.6W Tue evening, 32.1N 79.7W Wed morning, 32.4N 79.2W Wed evening, and 33.0N 79.0W Thu morning. Debby will move inland near 34.6N 79.1W by early Fri. Strong S to near-gale winds and rough seas will result over Atlantic waters N of 29N and W of 75W through Thu, with tropical storm conditions offshore the NE Florida coast tonight. Elsewhere, winds will remain generally moderate or weaker through late in the week, except just off Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage where fresh to strong E winds are expected tonight. $$ AReinhart