000 AXNT20 KNHC 060116 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Aug 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Updated for 0000 TC Tropical Storm Debby information Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Debby is centered near 30.7N 82.4W at 05/0000 UTC or 40 nm E of Valdosta Georgia, moving NE at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently estimated near 12 ft about 60 nm offshore of the Georgia coast, and extend 75 nm offshore. Seas in the NE Gulf of Mexico remain in the 8 to 10 ft ranges based on buoy observations. Rainbands associated with Debby are increasing across the Atlantic waters north of Palm Beach, Florida and west of 77W, while rainbands are diminishing across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and extend E of 84W from the Dry Tortugas to the coast along the Florida Big Bend. Winds to tropical storm force are assumed to have moved inland across the NE Gulf, and are occurring across the coastal waters of extreme NE Florida and SE Georgia. On the latest forecast track, Debby is expected to have a gradual decrease in forward speed with a turn toward the east on Tuesday. The center will move across southeastern Georgia tonight and Tuesday, and move offshore of the South Carolina coast by late Tuesday and Wednesday. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will affect the Southeast U.S. coast later tonight and continue through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Debby NHC Forecast and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 35W from 18N southward, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this time. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 63W from 19N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 12N to 15.5N between 63W and 73W. Scatterometer data from this morning depicted strong winds on either side of the wave in the far eastern Caribbean and on the Atlantic side of the Windward Islands. Seas range 6 to 8 ft on the both sides of the Islands. Meanwhile, the convection with this system has become disorganized since yesterday. Any development of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while the system moves westward over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development later this week as the system moves across the western Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico. This system has a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and 7 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17.5W to 15N27W to 08N44W, where it transitions to ITCZ and continues to 09N56W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N E of 31W, and within 60 nm either side of the trough and ITCZ between 36W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Debby. Outside of Debby, conditions across the Gulf are quiescent with light to gentle winds and slight seas. 1017 mb high pressure has settled into the NW Gulf near 27N95W, producing anticyclonic winds W of 87W. Sea of 8 ft and higher, associated with Debby, persist across much of the eastern Gulf E of 85W. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Debby will move across southeastern Georgia tonight and Tuesday, move offshore of the South Carolina coast by late Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the South Carolina coast on Thursday. As Debby continues to move NE of the area, a surface ridge will build again across the Gulf waters allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin through the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on a tropical wave currently approaching the Windward Islands. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted along the eastern Pacific monsoon trough in the southwest Caribbean, S of 13N between 77W and 84W. Scattered thunderstorms are also noted moving across the SE Caribbean, north of the ABC islands, with and ahead of the Caribbean tropical wave. Fresh to strong winds dominate most of the basin E of 68W, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Moderate trades and seas 3 to 6 ft are noted across the rest of the central and eastern basin. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southeast winds prevail across the NW basin with seas ranging 2 to 3 ft. For the forecast, the tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms and locally gusty winds across the eastern half of the basin. Any development of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while the system moves westward over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development later this week as the system moves across the western Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico. Strong winds will follow the wave as it moves across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Debbie that will move further inland across the SE U.S. tonight, and impact the waters offshore FL. In the western Atlantic, outer rainbands associated with Debby extends off the South Florida coast and across the waters north Bahamas W of 77W and northward to beyond 31N. Fresh to strong southerly winds extend from the northern Bahamas and Palm Beach northward to offshore of South Carolina, with tropical storm force winds now across the coastal waters of Georgia and extreme NE Florida. Seas are building across this region to a peak of 12 ft offshore of Georgia. Off the central and southern Florida coast, seas are 4 to 7 ft. Otherwise, the rest of the western Atlantic remains under the influence of a broad Bermuda ridge, and is experiencing gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft, while areas of fresh winds and seas to 6 ft prevail S of 21N. Meanwhile, surface ridging extends across the central and eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure near 34N62W. This is giving way to gentle to moderate winds across the rest of the Atlantic E of 60W. Light to gentle winds are noted off the Africa coast around the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas range 4 to 7 ft across the rest of the central and eastern Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Debby will move to 31.2N 82.1W Tue morning, inland to 31.7N 81.2W Tue afternoon, 31.7N 80.1W Wed morning, 32.1N 79.2W Wed afternoon, 32.6N 79.1W Thu morning, and inland to 33.2N 79.2W Thu afternoon. Debby will then weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland near 35.3N 79.1W by Fri afternoon. Strong to near-gale S winds and rough seas will result over Atlantic waters N of 27N and W of 75W through Thu, with tropical storm conditions offshore the NE Florida coast tonight into early Tue. Elsewhere, winds will remain generally moderate or weaker through late in the week, except just off Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage where fresh to strong E winds are expected tonight. $$ Stripling/Lewitsky