000 AXNT20 KNHC 060550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Aug 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Debby, at 06/0600 UTC, is near 31.2N 81.9W. This position also is about 22 nm/40 km to the west of Brunswick in Georgia; and about 54 nm/100 km to the north of Jacksonville in Florida. DEBBY is moving toward the northeast, or 050 degrees, 06 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. Expect winds 20 knots to 30 knots, and rough seas, from 28N northward between 77W and 81W, elsewhere in the forecast waters. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from NW Cuba northward between 73W in the Atlantic Ocean and 87W in the Gulf of Mexico. Debby is moving slowly. Expect torrential rains, and a major flood threat, for parts of the southeastern U.S.A., for the next several days. Please, consult forecasts and bulletins from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml; and the latest Debby NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W from 18N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: any significant deep convective precipitation is more related to the monsoon trough. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W from 19N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 630 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 420 nm to the west of the tropical wave. Moderate to rough seas, and fresh to strong NE winds, are from 13N to 20N between 55W and 60W. Any development of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days. The system will be moving into the eastern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development later this week, as the system moves into the western Caribbean Sea or into the southern Gulf of Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 14N17W, to 12N30W 08N46W. The ITCZ continues from 08N46W, to 09N60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 17N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Tropical Storm Debby. Expect: strong to near gale-force winds, and rough seas, from 26N northward between 82W and 86W, for the next 24 hours or so. The conditions are forecast to improve after 24 hours. Expect moderate seas in the middle one-third of the area. Expect slight seas in the western one-third of the area. Expect moderate to fresh winds in the rest of the area that is from 90W eastward. Gentle winds are from 90W westward. Tropical Storm Debby is inland in Georgia, moving farther away from the basin. Strong winds and rough seas over the far NE Gulf of Mexico in association with Debby will diminish into Tue. As Debby continues to move NE of the area, a surface ridge will build again across the Gulf waters allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin through the forecast period. A tropical wave currently over the eastern Caribbean has a low potential of tropical development late this week in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough is along 10N, from 73W in Colombia beyond Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 75 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 75W and 80W, and within 210 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between Lake Maracaibo of NW Venezuela and 77W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 16N southward from 70W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is between 60W and 70W, from Hispaniola northward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the southern sections of Hispaniola. Expect strong to near gale-force E winds, and rough seas, from 14N to 17N between 63W and 68W, including in the Atlantic Ocean exposures and passages. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 220 nm on either side of the line 19N60W 16N70W 14N80W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to near-rough seas are from 12N to 17N between 60W and 70W. Moderate seas are elsewhere from 70W eastward. Slight seas are from 80W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 06/0000 UTC, are: 0.39 in Curacao. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Disorganized thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean will move W into the central Caribbean during the next couple of days. Slow development is possible early this week, before environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development later this week in the western Caribbean Sea. Strong winds will follow the wave as it moves through the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Tropical Storm Debby. Tropical Storm Debby is inland in Georgia. Debby will move inland more and more, in the SE U.S.A., tonight. It will impact the offshore Florida waters for the next few days. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward from 76W eastward. Moderate to rough seas are from the Equator southward. Moderate to rough seas are from 10N southward between 20W and 43W. Slight seas are from 31N45W 27N53W 26N60W 26N70W northward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are from the monsoon trough northward from 20W eastward. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are from the monsoon trough southward from 20W eastward. Moderate to fresh surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 22N20W 20N30W 14N39W 09N50W 10N60W northward, and elsewhere from 74W eastward. Moderate to fresh southerly wind is elsewhere from the monsoon trough/the ITCZ southward. Tropical Storm Debby is inland over Georgia, near 31.1N 82.1W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving northeast at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Debby will remain inland near 31.6N 81.4W Tue morning, 31.8N 80.5W Tue evening, and 31.9N 79.5W Wed morning. Tropical Storm Debby will be offshore near 32.4N 79.1W Wed evening, 33.0N 79.1W Thu morning, and then move inland to 33.8N 79.4W Thu evening. Debby will weaken to a tropical depression while inland over North Carolina late Fri. Strong to near-gale S winds and rough seas will result over Atlantic waters N of 27N and W of 73W into Thu night, with tropical storm conditions offshore the NE Florida coast into early Tue. Elsewhere, winds will remain generally moderate or weaker through late in the week. $$ MT